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《業績前瞻》券商料招行(03968.HK)中期純利升逾16% 聚焦財管價值循環鏈表現
阿思達克 08-11 16:13
招商銀行(03968.HK)將於本周五(13日)公布截至今年6月底止中期業績,受惠於收入增長及信用成本降低,本網綜合4間券商預測,招行2021年上半年純利料介乎576.05億至587.83億元人民幣,較2020年同期497.88億人民幣,按年升15.7%至18.1%;中位數581.6億元人民幣,按年升16.8%。 中金指由於信用成本降低,市場普遍已預期內銀業績改善,建議投資者關注關機構的戰略深化升級,為中長期業績可持續的來源,如今年上半年招行旗下「大財富」價值循環鏈表現。而招行於今年3月曾指大財富價管理價值鏈為該行未來五年工作主線,將科技基礎建設和數字化經營加到客戶資產負債表,冀打通數字化獲客到財富管理的路徑,經過「存款轉AUM、貸款轉FPA(客戶融資總量)」兩步,形成「投行-資產管理-財富管理」價值循環鏈。而招行7月曾公布旗下零售AUM(管理客戶總資產)時點規模首破10萬億大關,今年上半年招行AUM規模增超萬億,已超過上年全年增量七成,令投資者關注其大財富管理計劃策略及進展。 【受惠信用成本降 聚焦財管循環鏈】 瑞銀預期,內銀股淨息差收窄情況於今年第二季改善,今年下半年淨息差料與上半年比較大致穩定。瑞銀估計招行今年上半年稅後利潤按年升16%,營業淨收入按年升12%、料淨利息收入按年升10.4%,料非利息收入按年增長14.7%;該行料招行今年第二季淨息差2.51%,按年升6個基點(按季收窄1個基點)。 建銀國際指,內銀行業欠缺盈利增長的正面催化劑,尤其在監管問題上,將見到股東回報率在系統性信貸質量欠缺改善下受影響。該行料招行中期純利按年升16.9%至581億元人民幣,估計招行上半年撥備前利潤(PPOP)1,640億人民幣按年升11.9%。該行料招行今年第二季純利錄261億人民幣按年升19%,料第二季股本回報率為16.1%, ------------------------------------------- 本網綜合4間券商預測,招行2021年上半年純利料介乎576.05億至587.83億元人民幣,較2020年同期497.88億人民幣,按年升15.7%至18.1%;中位數581.6億元人民幣,按年升16.8%。 券商│2020年中期純利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅 美銀證券│587.83億元│+18.1% 里昂│582.2億元│+16.9% 建銀國際│581億元│+16.7% 中金│576.05億元│+15.7% 按招行2020年中期純利497.88億元人民幣計算
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