《大行報告》花旗:天津推新土地政策抑制地價 料或全國實行 對內房股屬利好訊號
花旗發表報告表示,就天津市規劃和自然資源局延期進行第二批集中供地活動,以及最高溢價率降至15%、競拍至限價後將搖號,並明確規定土地競買方必需要有房地產開發資質、關於競買方資金來源,競買方必須有自有資金、達到地價或溢價率上限時不得變相提高拍賣價格等確拍,可從綠色建築、裝配式、智慧化等方式擇優確認競拍方。該行認爲上述政策調整比該行預期爲早,並估計於今年下半年將在全國範圍內實施。
該行認爲,上述內地土地新政策下,估計下半年供應增加和需求降溫,可能導致地價溫和增長,並估計新土地利潤率可能於下半年觸底,因此新政策限制地價溢價,並禁止土地價格間接上漲。
花旗料具有綠色建築業務的內房發展商如中國金茂(00817.HK)、美的置業(03990.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK、及資產負債表強勁的龍湖集團(00960.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)可望受惠。
花旗認爲,內地今次新的土地政策對內房股是一個令人鼓舞訊號,該行原料內房行業最早只會在9月份出現持續性反彈,因料今年上半年業績表現乏善可陳;該行估計內房股8月的銷售可能放緩,因爲在宏觀環境下抵押貸款緊縮和購買力並不高。該行認爲內房股在黎明前黑暗階段下宜具選擇性,該行首選龍湖集團、華潤置地、合景泰富(01813.HK)、龍光集團(03380.HK)、融創中國(01918.HK)及寶龍地產(01238.HK)。
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