植耀輝: 道指標普再創新高 港股續考驗25,800點支持
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股上周繼續造好,最新公布之就業數據表現亮麗,反映當地經濟狀況仍樂觀,道指及標普上周五(6日)便再創歷史新高,分別上升0.4%及0.2%,不過科技股表現則相對較失色,納指便下跌約0.4%。全周計,三大指數均錄得升幅,納指上升1.1%,至於道指及標普500指數則分別上升0.7%及0.9%。
港股方面,雖然上周五微跌25點,但全周計仍能反彈218點,收報26,179點。論表現其實僅不過不失,不過騰訊(00700.HK)上周五終見北水大手淨買入,算是其中一個較正面消息。惟大市仍有不少值得關注地方。本周將陸續有公司公布業績,料會對市場氣氛有一定影響;只是監管陰霾恐怕仍揮之不去,執筆之時ATM又各自有利淡消息,新加坡黑期又再跌破26,000點水平。恐怕在觀望氣氛主導下,恆指仲有反彈,但預期於26,600點附近會有顯著阻力,下方支持則下移至25,500點。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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內地監管風險未減 拖累大市氣氛
耀才研究部稱,美股上周五(6日)個別發展,美國7月非農新增就業逾94萬人,勝預期並創近一年新高,失業率降至5.4%,為去年疫情爆發以來新低,道指和標指齊破頂,銀行股跑出。內地持續出現監管風波,騰訊(00700.HK)旗下微信「青少年模式」不符合未成年人保護法被起訴,公司需認真自檢自查;另外有指內地反壟斷監管部門,計劃就美團(03690.HK)涉及壟斷問題,判處罰款約10億美元,重磅科網股將繼續拖累大市表現,「黑期」今早最新跌約200點在25,960點附近。
從技術走勢上看,恆指於8月4日的高位26,650點見頂回落,目前仍符合一個典型浪低於浪之格局,需注意恆指於7月28號遺留了一個上升裂口仍未回補,意味未來仍有較大機會下試25,520點,投資者切勿掉以輕心。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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