《大行報告》大摩降內地三大航空股評級至「與大市同步」 下調目標價
摩根士丹利發表的研究報告指,將2021-23年內地的本地及國際航空需求估算下降,將內地三大航空股的H股評級由「增持」降至「與大市同步」,但對春秋航空及國泰(00293.HK)評級則維持「增持」。
該行指出,內地的本地旅遊後市將受疫情反覆影響,而Delta變種病毒株快速擴散令內地疫情管控受測試,短期而言確診個案重現將令內地航空公司暑假旺季表現弱過預期,並為今年第四季帶來盈利下行,拖累2021年盈利表現,中期而言亦減低了對盈利持續復甦的信念,主要因為地區爆發有風險,加上內地政府對本地確診容忍度低。
該行認為中資航空股風險回報平衡,假如本地出現爆發亦可輕易控制,這方面或存在上行空間,不過零星確診個案或會影響到旅遊氣氛,故亦會帶來下行風險。大摩相信中資航空股2021年仍錄虧損,但到2022年則會有微利,在盈利可見性提升之前,不認為會看到中資航空股估值持續復甦。該行下調2021-23年內地本地及國際航空交通量估算,將2022年每股盈測降45-93%,而2023年則降18-60%,目標價平均降24%。(el/k) ~
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