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《大行報告》美銀證券料內險股上半年業績弱 估計中國平安(02318.HK)新業務價值按年跌10%
美銀證券發表研究報告指,內地保險業中期表現疲弱,認為1月至2月的強勁反彈某種程度上是對上半年增長的透支,3月至6月保費增長偏軟,預期中國平安(02318.HK)、中人壽(02628.HK)及新華保險(01336.HK)上半年新業務價值(VNB)分別按年跌約10%、19%及9%,而太保(02601.HK)則預期升2%。 該行預期,平安上半年VNB利潤率將下由去年同期的36.7%下跌至32.6%,首年保費增長約2%,由於續保保費下跌,或令總保費下跌4%。美銀估計平安上半年淨利將達到671億元人民幣,按年跌2%,稅後經營溢利料升4%。 美銀預測,太保上半年VNB利潤率將降至32.9%,在去年低基數及隱含價值增長13%下,淨利料增長9%至155億元人民幣。 至於中人壽,該行解釋VNB下跌主要由於去年基數較高,預測淨利將增長29%至394億元人民幣,VNB利潤率跌至32.9%;新華保險淨利則預期增長31%至108億元人民幣,VNB利潤率料降至31.1%。
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