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《大行報告》瑞銀降九龍倉置業(01997.HK)評級至「沽售」 境內奢侈品銷售蓬勃壓抑本港旅客消費
瑞銀髮表研究報告,指即使預期2022年進出境才正常化,對內地境內奢侈品銷售維持正面看法,料2021至2025年間奢侈品消費開支年均複合增長達17%,受惠在岸免稅板塊快速發展,內地產品線更豐富及更多分店,以及中國與境外奢侈品價差收窄。相反,該行對香港旅客銷售復甦持審慎看法,料至2025年香港正常化零售銷售僅4,300億元,相當於2020至2025年間年均複合增長僅6%。

該行稱,主要憂慮香港旅遊業僅逐步復甦(參考澳門經驗);內地境內免稅品銷售蠶食旅客開支。該行門店客流分析亦指奢侈品牌在深圳擴張,但收縮香港經營規模。香港零售收租股現估值相當於預測未來12個月股息率4.1%,與歷史均值及疫情前水平相若,瑞銀料市場或對旅客消費復甦過分樂觀。

報告表示,不預期入境內地旅客在港消費全面復甦。該行分析指海南CDF線上平臺提供多款護膚及美容產品,價格較本港低出10%至11%,對本港零售銷售影響屬負面,因內地旅客消費開支有31%佔比與此有關。該行料更多奢侈品牌將在大灣區開設分店,因在深圳及廣州奢侈品牌分店密度仍遠低於香港、北京及上海。

該行留意到銅鑼灣時代廣場轉變成生活商場的下行風險加劇,由於其租金較鄰近商場存溢價,或致續租租金有重大向下調整風險。另尖沙咀K11 MUSEA明年潛在租客組合升級,或對同區海港城構成威脅。

瑞銀將九龍倉置業(01997.HK)投資評級由「中性」降至「沽售」,主因估值偏高,及高佔用成本與競爭加劇帶來結構性挑戰。該行續偏好太古地產(01972.HK)及恆隆地產(00101.HK),喜好其境內奢侈品銷售及豐富商場佈局。該行亦喜好新世界(00017.HK),指風險回報吸引及K11 MUSEA或帶來潛在上行。詳細投資評級及目標價見另表。

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