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《大行報告》中金:市場對港股短期估值已計入過多悲觀情緒 或逐步進入「佈局期」
中金髮表研究報告,指港股7月下旬市場急轉直下,監管政策超預期是直接誘因,恐慌情緒和資金流出進一步放大了波動。互聯網、教育股等首當其衝,但其他板塊也未能倖免。整體看2月高點以來,恆生科技指數累計回調38%,MSCI中國指數下跌27%,恆生國企指下跌25%,逼近疫情低點,恆生指數回調幅度較少但也有17%,這一表現使得港股基本在全球墊底。該行認爲龍頭企業和風險偏好回落,是最主要拖累、相比之下盈利基本持平、無風險利率則是正貢獻。

該行指,經過近期大幅回調後,港股市場估值已從原來相對偏高位置回到均值下方甚至相對低位,部份板塊,如食品零售、消費服務和媒體娛樂估值已經降至2006年以來均值以下,部分老經濟如房地產、能源、銀行和保險更是處於歷史區間低位。個別受政策影響的大公司,估值回到歷史均值1倍標準差以下。通過對比阿裏巴巴(09988.HK)和騰訊(00700.HK)的案例,發現阿裏年初以來的估值表現較騰訊更有韌性,這在一定程度上說明政策落地是重要企穩因素。

該行又指,南向資金7月前整體平穩,但7月流出創紀錄;海外資金從去年三季度開始流入以來也整體平穩,實際上直到上週也沒有出現市場所擔憂的大幅流出;短期看,一些技術性和估值指標都指向市場可能已經計入過多悲觀情緒,例如成交異常放大、賣空比例提升、資金大幅流出,市場明顯超賣等。如果政策和情緒邊際改善,可能都會推動市場企穩反彈。

該行認爲港股可能逐步步入「佈局期」,建議重點從以下幾個維度佈局反彈,超跌個股,反彈彈性可能較大;悲觀情緒計入過多、被錯殺,而基本面穩健的稀缺優質龍頭;符合中國內在長期趨勢領域,包括科技硬件、新能源車產業鏈、新能源、高端製造及優質消費及醫藥龍頭。

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