郭思治: 大市需重越10天線 方算真正回穩
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市自上月27日低位24,748點開始之反彈,至29日高位26,335點止計,由於累積之升幅已達1,587點,實不算少,故高台略見回吐乃正常現象,惟問題是大市會否再下試低位而已,談到此點,當需留意一眾新經濟股之表現,尤其是騰訊(00700.HK),美團(03690.HK)及阿里巴巴(09988.HK),因上述三隻新經濟股在恆指內之成份比重共佔達23.04%,對大市而言,當具一定主導性,從上周五(30日)之市況看,沽壓確已明顯收斂,只是經過一輪急跌後,技術上帶來之剎傷力相當大,故投資信心及意欲該不會三時兩刻能恢復,即是說,大市可能會先進入整固之中,等待下一輪之變化。
往上看,目前首個技術阻力該為29日之高位26,335點,而較關鍵的阻力位為10天線(26,605點),因恆指必需成功重越該線並穩守其上,方算真正的回穩,同時亦可望作進一步之推升,再看,以恆指於上周五(30日)報收為25,961點計,只要大市能有約1,000點之上升,8月上旬已可上試27,000點,反之,如大市於8月上旬再遇沽壓,則大市當會再回試25,000點之支持。
8月大市之形態屬先高或是先低,確需觀察多天才得知。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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