《大行報告》花旗:恆指因憂監管風險大幅調整 薦中石化及金沙等8隻中港首選
花旗發表報告表示,近期中港股市呈大幅調整,相信是市場擔心內地監管政策風險所導致,該行認為以國有企業和股本回報率低於20%的公司行業,料所受到監管風險的影響會較低。從過去五年數據,恆生指數由本輪周期累積升幅的高點至今已累跌60%,從此前兩個週期中亦獲得的收益並在本次週期中有所縮減;若歷史重演,該行料恆指再下行空間可能有限,假設大市跌至過去五年的低谷,料將再有約15%的進一步下行空間,雖然此情境並非該行的基本情境預測。
該行指,恆指估值相當預測明年市盈率10.9倍及市賬率1.1倍並不昂貴,並看好可受惠於從高通脹、疫情後的業務復甦及清潔能源使用中受益的股份。該行建議「增持」基本材料、能源、交通、博彩、保險及清潔能源行業。
花旗表示,看好寧德時代(300750.SZ)、中石化(00386.HK)、南方航空(01055.HK)、金沙中國(01928.HK)、友邦(01299.HK)、蒙牛(02319.HK)、華潤燃氣(01193.HK)及粵海投資(00270.HK)。
從技術面分析,花旗指恆指在過去五年(自2016年以來)周期下一旦累積升幅從高點累積下調60%後會呈反彈,指恆指從2020年3月19日的21,709點的低谷,至2021年2月17日回升至31,085點的高點(累升9,376點);以恆指25,474點為計,本週期從最高點至今(點數幅度計)已回落60%。此外,從過去五年,該行指恆指於2016年12月22日曾跌至21,574點(恆指於2020年3月23日曾跌至21,696點),如果恆指必須跌至此水平,則意味著當前位置還有15%的下行空間。這並不是該行的基本情境預測,因為今年恆指每股盈利預計上升15.8%,明年上升12.1%,明顯優於2016年按年下跌12.5%及2020年下跌21.5%。恆指現時明年預測市盈率為10.9倍,市賬率1.1倍,與歷史平均水平的10.5倍市盈率及1.1倍市賬率相近。
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