大行報吿 | 大摩更新有關中滙集團(0382.HK)首三季度業務進展之研究報吿 維持“增持”評級 目標價10.1港元
業務增長可期 近期政府監管政策不涉及集團所屬高等教育及職業教育
摩根士丹利(“大摩”)指出,中滙集團(0382.HK)2021年首3季度業績增長如期,收入同比增長48%至9.01億元人民幣,有望實現2021年12.5億元人民幣的收入目標,這得益於廣東學校的內生增長和四川收購學校的業績貢獻(佔2021年首3季度收入的17%)。
大摩預計,集團業務將於2022年繼續增長,指廣東華商學院獲得9,000多個本科招生名額,包括專升本,同比增長30%+;其中專升本學額同比翻倍至4,200人;而華商職業學院獲得了9,000個配額,較去年的7,000個同比增長28%。
大摩亦預計集團的職業教育業務將快速增長,指本次首三季度業績職業教育收入佔總收入約5%為4,200萬元。集團的目標是在未來三年內實現每年都有50%的同比增長。
大摩亦指出,集團管理層認為高等教育學校可以選擇營利性或非營利性,而時間表因各省而異。管理層認為獨立學院轉換完成後,政府才開始處理選營選非,地方政府決定細節需要時間,可能需要三年。中滙集團旗下學校的所有土地均為出讓用地,因此不需要額外的土地成本。
此外,集團沒有看到高等教育監管環境有任何的變化,反而政府是大力支持高等教育和職業教育。
最後,集團預計本科招生名額穩定增長,專升本將成為民辦本科學校招生名額的主要增長動力,集團旗下學校在質量和區域位置都具備很強的優勢,這是決定民辦高校未來是否走得遠的兩個非常重要的因素。
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