美股到底貴不貴？
來源 | 國泰君安研究
美國三大股指的估值水位超越1990年來97%的時段，但考量DDM模型中的估值六要素當前美股估值並不貴。美國通脹超預期、美聯儲QE Taper臨近及Delta變異毒株出現令釐清「美股到底貴不貴」的重要性擡升。
當前美國三大股指的Trailing PE超越1990年來97%的時段，「貴」似乎無可辯駁，但從DDM模型出發考量ROE、g、無風險利率、風險評價、風險偏好、交易的估值六要素，當前美股估值並不貴。
美股估值與其盈利彈性、穩定性、成長性相匹配。
「危機」與「疫情」兩次衝擊下美股估值與流動性漲幅一致，後續通脹預期回落拉拽無風險利率上行空間令美股難言高估。
無風險利率預期：銅金比指示後續將出現的無風險利率由通貨膨脹驅動轉爲實際利率時，美股夏普比將走高，且當前股債收益差低位反彈削弱無風險利率預期敏感度；無風險利率帶動流動性：「危機」與「疫情」衝擊帶動的主要經濟體M2/名義GDP、代表股指TrailingPE的最大漲幅次序及幅度相一致，考慮居民權益配比上升的股指-房指比價，美股估值亦合理。
風險溢價位於歷史中樞反推美股估值仍在可接受範圍。風險評價：美聯儲QE Taper的臨近兌現令美股風險評價下行，以史爲鑑該時期具備三大股指上漲、中盤優於大盤、成長優於價值三大特徵；風險偏好：以2000年爲起點，當下美股42.5%ERP分位處於歷史中樞，且高於相同時間區間內的標普500VIX分位，美股估值仍在可接受範圍。
交易環節點面相合傳達美股大限未至。
強勢股的「點」：FAANG的市值及月內日均成交量分別佔標普500的14.2%與2.7%，略低於茅指數標的在中證800的佔比，量價狀況較爲健康，且近來羅素3000的強勢正在改善美股收益率結構；
全樣本的「面」：表徵股價崩盤風險的負收益偏態係數（NCSKEW）與收益上下波動比率（DUVOL）分別處於2003年來的31.6%與43.8%分位，未觸及歷史中樞水平，美股處於安全區間。
後續美股大戲還由估值主演，全球流動性映射下帶動A股行情繼續。中長期視角：美股股價的「盈利-估值貢獻」存在週期性，未來十年美聯儲難以擺脫高企的債務與赤字桎梏；短期視角：疫情的反覆+經濟復甦下半場工資性收入佔比擡升+加稅計劃開展令美國貨幣政策難以實質性收緊。
美股估值不會崩潰下，開放提速增強市場聯動，A股行情也將由分母端主導。看好系統性估值擡升空間更大的中證500及新能源/電子/醫藥生物/商貿零售等已通過技術或市場逐步建立壁壘的成長性賽道。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
