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《大行報告》裏昂料阿裏巴巴(09988.HK)次季經調整EBITA跌11%至403億人幣
裏昂發表的研究報告指,預期阿裏巴巴(09988.HK)截至6月底的季績將較弱,主要因爲期內投資損失較高。次季內地線上銷售增長僅13%,主要因爲去年同期基數較高,而公司的客戶管理收入增長估計亦預行業一致,料將在15%左右水平,阿裏雲收入則繼續因大型客戶中止在其平臺作海外經營而受累。該行估計公司整體收入將爲2,100億元人民幣(下同),增長放慢至37%,經調整EBITA按年跌11%至403億元,主要因爲在社區團購、淘寶特價版及餓了麼方面投資較大,料盈利跌勢到9月底的季度有機會擴大,主要因爲推廣減少,但到12月底止的季度則會出現反彈。裏昂相信大部分針對監管及投資的風險已反映,重申「買入」評級,對其美股目標價爲300美元。

該行估計截至6月底的季度阿裏客戶管理收入將按年升15%至820億元,主要受惠商品交易額(GMV)提升,特別是在618期間有推廣,不過由於小型商戶技術服務費有豁免,故抽成比率將維持穩定。該行指出有逾25萬商戶參與天貓及淘寶618活動,數目較去年有所提升,認爲公司繼續在帖文、直播、短視頻、社交媒體內容、流量管理等方面變現,而阿裏亦利用618推廣助商戶建立私人流量,以支持銷售持續增長,品牌商戶在618期間增逾6,000萬名新會員。

裏昂認爲阿裏雲收入將按年升35%至166億元,主要因爲頂尖客戶中止海外營運,令收入有所減少,撇除相關因素阿裏雲收入料按年升40%。該行指出互聯網服務貢獻阿裏雲一半收入,不過因爲基數高故增長或減慢,而傳統行業在疫情後雖有加快採納雲服務,但或是循序漸進推展,同時亦傾向使用混合雲,阿裏雲有300萬來自政府、金融、製造業及零售業的付費用戶,估計公司有較好的地理覆蓋及技術,可維持其40%按年增長。(el/a) ~

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