《大行報告》麥格理下調萬洲(00288.HK)目標價至8.9元 評級「跑贏大市」
麥格理髮表的研究報告指,萬洲國際(00288.HK)將於8月12日公佈中期業績,基於現時行業需求及豬價走勢,估計公司次季經營溢利將按年升12.6%,低過原先預期的37.5%,並將公司2021/22盈利預測降12.1%及10.2%,以反映一次性的訴訟的影響,以及美國豬價提升,目標價由10.1元降至8.9元,評級「跑贏大市」。
在雙彙集團(000895.SH)方面,受需求弱及內地豬價向下影響,該行憂慮盈利將現進一步降級,將其2021/22年盈利預測降4.3%及8.4%,重申「跑輸大市」評級,目標價降至22元人民幣。
該行認爲次季業績將有負面驚喜,擔心美國豬價高的益處未能在次季呈現,另一方面鮮豬及包裝肉業務亦因高豬價而利潤受壓,不過該行相信影響短暫,之後的季度隨着價格調整應可重拾利潤。同時公司以每股7.8港元價格回購股份應是催化劑,亦相信史密斯菲爾德更換CEO不會爲公司帶來重大影響。
該行認爲雙匯仍處下行趨勢,基於其行業調查,次季內地消費弱過預期,或反映雙匯的包裝肉銷量表現令人失望,雖然公司預期每噸利潤將維持穩定,但考慮到市場競爭加劇,對其利潤前景審慎。在鮮豬方面該行認爲亦有潛在風險,估計每頭利潤將有顯着的下行風險,主要因爲豬價向下及低成本進口凍肉庫存已用完。(el/k) ~
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