摩根大通:維持周大福(1929.HK)中性評級 目標價13.5港元
摩根大通表示,對周大福(1929.HK)的產品組合日益感到憂慮,認為黃金產品佔總銷售由去年首財季的60%增至今年同期約71%,屬不利發展,或令公司利潤率壓力較市場預期更嚴重,加上第二季度競爭加劇,市場或需下調周大福2022全年度盈利預測,目前摩通的預測數字已較彭博平均預估低7%。該行維持周大福中性投資評級,目標價為13.5港元。
摩根大通發表研究報吿,周大福首財季內地同店銷售按年增長近43%,反映6月增長放緩至大約30%,而6月零售值增長亦減慢至55%。首財季營運數字公佈後,摩通對周大福的股價走勢更審慎,認為在缺乏正面催化劑下,未來數季,周大福股價或有下行風險。
報吿提到去年黃金產品去庫存的一次性收益,今年將不復見,營運槓槓或不足以抵銷毛利率收窄的影響,雖然摩通對周大福長期策略及品牌質素有信心,惟對短期前景審慎,擔心公司將門店擴張至低線城市,會令其利潤率受壓,儘管今年香港業務表現可望好轉,但因旅遊業復甦需時,相信改善幅度不會太明顯。

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