第一太平戴維斯：商鋪租金連跌18個月後在第二季回穩
第一太平戴維斯發佈2021年第二季零售租賃報告指出，商鋪租金在本季止跌回升，反映市場氣氛逐漸改善，但能否徹底好轉則要視乎通關的進度。
受惠於零售銷貨額上升，香港零售市場氣氛在第二季持續改善。據政府最新公佈數字，繼在4月上升12.1%後，零售銷貨額在2021年5月按年上升10.5%；同時，本港失業率自4月的6.4%回落至5月的6.0%，亦有助改善消費情緒。
報告指出租賃市場亦出現復甦跡象，租賃活動輕微增加。核心區顯眼的吉鋪和完約待租空間陸續獲得承租，而餐飲、雜貨相關店鋪及運動休閒品牌等依賴本地需求的行業仍然是上半年租賃活動的主要來源。雖然多個跨國品牌，尤其是時裝品牌，已凍結其今年的擴充預算，令該類行業的承租進度放緩，但另一方面，期間限定店及短期租約則在各行各業間愈趨普及，本季開業的例子包括IKEA宜家家居在銅鑼灣利園山道寶榮大樓開設的期間限定店，以及Mother of Pearl在奕居開設的期間限定珍珠奶茶店。
該行指出，優質街鋪及主要商場的租金經歷18個月下跌後終於回穩，分別按季升0.3%及1.2%。受到強勁的本地需求所帶動，非核心區商場在第二季表現領先核心區商場，錄得3.7%的租金升幅，後者租金則維持不變。
報告指出雖然香港目前新冠肺炎的感染率遠低於其他全球金融樞紐，但在變種病毒的威脅下，香港何時可以全面通關仍未可知。因此，香港零售市場短期內仍將繼續依賴本地需求。展望未來，人口增長將集中於新界區及北大嶼山一帶。據規劃署的預測數字，直至2024年的未來三年，屯門、大埔及北區的人口增長率最高，介乎10.6%至13.5%，而全港整體人口增長率則爲3.4%。此外，由於元朗、屯門及啓德將推出大量全新私人住宅單位，中產家庭數目將會大增，預期有關地區的整體消費力將因此顯着上升。
該行指出這些人口增長迅速的地區當中，其零售設施供應卻難以趕上不斷增加的需求。例如直至2024年，元朗及屯門兩區人均可使用的購物中心總樓面面積將分別爲5.2平方尺及6.0平方尺，低於沙田(8.5平方尺)及荃灣(14.7平方尺)等人口密集的地區。因此，該行認爲人口增長迅速的地區將爲零售商及購物中心發展商提供龐大機遇。同樣地，作爲寫字樓人口未來增長可期的焦點地區，長沙灣將會迅速冒起，預計該區在未來兩至三年將推出逾200萬尺甲級寫字樓空間，總供應量將增加30%。(el/u)
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