《大行報告》摩通全線下調水泥股目標價 行業首選潤泥(01313.HK)
摩根大通發表報告指,材料行業今年至今表現最差的是水泥股,主要水泥企業股價今年下跌了15%至20%,對比國指爲下跌8%。該行相信,水泥股表現跑輸是由於行業面對宏觀政策挑戰,包括政策收緊及地方政府債的發行較預期爲慢;淡季的需求遜預期,今年5月的水泥需求按年下跌3%;股票市場喜好有更強勁盈利增長的企業多於價值型企業;及動力煤價格走高,引起成本上升的憂慮。
該行預期,行業跑輸的情況在今年下半年會有改善,不過目前距離有清楚的上升催化劑仍有數月,並不預計行業上半年的盈利表現可成主要股價催化劑,估計大部分水泥企業中期盈利會按年持平,或有低單位數的增長。在具挑戰的行業背景下,該行會更選擇性,喜好估值便宜及有更高股息收益率支持的華潤水泥(01313.HK)。
摩通全線下調水泥股目標價,並調低今明兩年盈利預測5%至10%。其中,華潤水泥目標價由12元降至10元;海螺水泥(00914.HK)由63元降至56元;中國建材(03323.HK)由13元降至11.5元,三企評級均爲「增持」。
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