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《大行報告》大摩下調中芯(00981.HK)目標價至25元 評級「增持」
摩根士丹利發表報告指,今年第二季業績期將是半導體週期表現的重要指引,大部分該行所覆蓋的相關公司均在本週公佈業績,而次季臺灣半導體企業的收入表現符預期,惟庫存週轉天數資訊並未公開,該行估計第二季半導體庫存應輕微增加,主要因爲需求大致一樣但產出有改善。其中臺積電(TSM.US)將於7月15日公佈業績,該行予臺積電「與大市同步」評級以反映其長遠利潤勢頭,相信第三季毛利率指引將是關鍵。

該行指,整體而言過去兩月行業未有重大轉變,不過在庫存上有調整,隨着PC渠道及OEM庫存進一步增加,反映供應正逐步趕上,而在需求層面,內地智能手機需求在「618」促銷後回穩,另一方面下半年雲需求則強過預期。在產出方面,該行認爲中芯國際(00981.HK)28nm晶圓產能擴張方面有潛在風險,主要因爲設備牌照問題,將公司目標價由31.8元降至25元,維持「增持」評級。

大摩估計,第三季部分產品如IC、電力相關半導體、記憶體等價格將進一步提升,升幅介乎5-10%,另一方面智能手機半導體及加密貨幣掘礦硬件價格進一步提升可能性較微,而企業對第三季價格及利潤的指示以及市場預期將是股份表現的決定性因素。(el/w) ~

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