《大行報告》大和降新東方-S(09901.HK)目標價至85元 重申「買入」
大和發表研究報告指,新東方-S(09901.HK)將於7月底公佈2021財年末季業績。該行料其收入按年升43%,對應指引升幅介乎38%至43%。由於增加對導師補償,料末財季經營利潤率錄負1.5%。考慮監管不確定性,料新東方將縮小其擴張課室規模計劃,由原先按年擴20%至25%,收窄至低至中十位數(low- to mid-teens),目標價相應由154元下調至85元,重申評級「買入」。
至於2022財年首季,考慮海外相關業務基數較低,該行料新東方總收入按年升48%。大和預期新東方在增加新學習中心上更趨保守,料2021全財年課室教學容量增長16%。大和料K-12業務將貢獻新東方2021財年收入約80%,高於疫前的介乎65%至70%。
該行認爲,內地新公佈教育政策料對學前及小學板塊構成壓力,即將來到的「雙降」(指義務教育階段減輕學生課業負擔以及校外培訓負擔)要求將顯着影響公司K-12業務。考慮「雙降」帶來的不確定性,大和對新東方短期持審慎看法。倘新規最終較市場預期所溫和,現時股價有吸引的上行空間。該行認爲,新東方定位理想,可捕捉更受規管市場的機遇。
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