盈選報告 | PMI回落，經濟放緩，關注中醫藥、半導體板塊
市場策略
▍任澤平在報告中分享道，經濟放緩，大宗商品價格高點臨近。
（1）製造業PMI、經濟動能連續三個月回落，生產回落、向需求迴歸。
（2）新出口訂單持續下滑，兩個月處於景氣區間以下。
（3）大宗商品價格快速上漲階段或已結束，高點臨近，市場對貨幣政策收緊的預期和焦慮會逐步緩解，但歐美經濟復甦、印度拉美深陷疫情所帶來的供求缺口仍然存在，所以大宗商品價格短期可能高位盤整、品種分化。
（4）通脹已在全球範圍內傳導，國內PPI創新高、海外通脹快速擡升；上遊向下遊傳導存在滯後效應，重點關注近期豬肉價格反彈對CPI的影響。
▍平安證券認爲，美聯儲Taper信號將出，7月港股展望中性偏樂觀。對於港股而言，雖然盈利端更多看國內，但由於匯兌制度與資金自由流動等因素，與國際市場接軌的緊密程度強於A股，所以仍需警惕海外方面的衝擊，拜登加稅、聯儲釋放Taper信號等負面衝擊可能會加劇港股波動，不過程度可能相對有限。在這種環境下，我們對7月份港股展望爲中性偏樂觀，關注能源、消費、工業的景氣機會。
▍國信證券調整恆生指數2021年31000-32000點的目標區間，意味着恆指有機會挑戰本輪新高。該行認爲下半年大盤上行的同時，也會伴隨輪動的局面。半年報較優或者其他基本面驅動的板塊主要爲紡織服裝、醫藥、金屬、能源，其次，恆生科技、大金融中報預計符合預期而股價超跌，也將會有明顯的估值修復。二季報之後或者Q4，部分板塊的估值過高，加之距離年底taper以及資金面的不確定性，使得風險偏好無法持續提升，此時當關注價格可能持續上行的資源股、低估值的銀行股，以及經濟週期影響較小的電信運營商和香港本地股。
熱點機會
▍中醫藥板塊：
近日，國家衛健委提出加強綜合醫院中醫藥工作，行業再迎利好。
中信證券研報稱，政策扶持下，中醫藥相關優勢企業有望實現強者恆強。
粵開證券指出，國家將完善發展環境，大力推動中醫藥服務貿易，中藥龍頭企業有望迎來歷史性發展機遇。
▍半導體板塊：
多家半導體芯片企業發佈半年報業績預告，業績表現亮眼。多家券商發佈研報稱，看好芯片“缺貨漲價”行情下產業鏈公司的收益情況，在最新研報中把半導體板塊作爲下半年配置主線之一。
業內人士預計，現階段半導體產能在下遊需求不斷增長，短期產能擴張無法跟上激增的需求的情況下供需格局持續緊張，並且缺芯的持續時間可能超預期；目前產業鏈景氣度持續高漲，除了漲價之外，供需緊張的格局使得幾乎所有的半導體產品都面臨不同程度上的貨期延長，其中成熟製程的需求十分高漲。
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