中偉股份(300919):前驅體龍頭加速擴產 一體化提升盈利能力
一、事件概述 公司發佈定增公吿,擬發行數量不超過本次發行前公司總股本的10%,即不超過5,696.50萬股,將募集不超過50 億元,其中35 億元用於廣西北部灣基地一期建設,設計產能包括:三元前驅體產能18 萬噸/年,硫酸鎳溶液產能11 萬金噸/年(包括鎳溶解與MSP 產線),硫酸鈷溶液1 萬金噸/年。建設期為30 個月,達產後預計年收入162 億元,税後利潤16.3 億元,税後內部收益率為21.85%,投資回收期為7.36 年。此外15 億元將用於補充流動資金。二、分析與判斷 前驅體龍頭加速擴產,鞏固地位 公司積極擴產,三元前驅體產能2018-2020 年分別為6.5、9.5、11 萬噸,2020 年三元前驅體出貨量超7.2 萬噸,位居全球行業第一。2021 年年底公司產能有望超過19 萬噸,我們預計公司全年有效產能為15 萬噸,得益於下游旺盛需求,有望維持滿產。此次擴產按30 個月建設期計算,將於2023 年年底達產,對應單噸投資額為3.3 萬元,單噸收入9 萬元左右。公司客户包括LG 化學、廈門鎢業、特斯拉、當升科技、振華新材、貝特瑞、天津巴莫、三星SDI 等國內外優質客户,本次定增項目達產後公司三元前驅體產能將增加至37 萬噸,可滿足客户210GWh 左右的動力電池需求,鞏固公司龍頭地位。 一體化戰略穩步推進,進一步提升單噸淨利 定增項目擬建設3 條硫酸鎳(MSP)生產線、2 條硫酸鎳(鎳溶解)生產線、1 條硫酸鈷(氫氧化鈷)生產線,將上游硫酸鎳和硫酸鈷原材料供應納入生產環節,保證材料穩定供應和品質保障,同時能以更低成本獲取原材料並提升三元前驅體材料性能,增強盈利能力。廣西基地臨近廣西欽州港,方便印尼等地資源運輸,並可輻射四川等地客户,進一步降低成本。此前公司已積極佈局上游一體化:1)2020 年,公司與青山控股子公司簽訂戰略合作協議,預計2021-2030 年總供應公司鎳金屬當量30-100 萬噸,鎖定鎳源。 2)2020 年,公司在貴州西部產業基地建立循環產業園,預計2021 年將實現鎳鈷冶煉產能5 萬金噸,並在廣西南部產業基地建設7 萬噸金屬鎳鈷及其綜合循環回收項目;3)2021 年4 月9 日,公司與RIGQUEZA 簽署紅土鎳礦冶煉年產高冰鎳含鎳金屬3 萬噸(印尼)項目合資協議,進一步保障鎳礦供應。通過一體化戰略推進,公司單噸淨利有望進一步提升,此次定增項目對應淨利率約10%,三元前驅體單噸税後淨利將提升至0.91萬元/噸,高於公司21Q1 單噸淨利0.57 萬元/噸。 三、投資建議 公司是三元前驅體龍頭,出貨量穩步提升,單噸淨利隨一體化和高鎳趨勢也有望穩步上升,我們預計公司2021-2023 年歸母淨利潤為10.61、17.03、24.16 億元,同比分別增長152%、61%、42%,當前股價對應2021-2023 年 PE 分別為75、47、33 倍。參考CS 新能車當前PE-TTM 為142 倍,首次覆蓋,給予公司“推薦”評級。四、風險提示:新能源車銷量不及預期;公司產能擴張進度不及預期。
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