興業銀行(601166):服務新經濟的三步走策略-案例、分析和提煉
興業銀行通過“搭台+賦能+深耕”三步走策略,打造全新的資產組織與管理能力,實現商行+投行戰略落地:在我國經濟新舊動能轉換的關鍵期,深度擁抱新經濟是商業銀行長期可持續發展的關鍵,而新經濟與傳統行業有着全然不同的經營特徵和融資需求,商業銀行需依託自身平台賦予的資源整合能力,構建起融合直接融資和間接融資特徵的綜合化融資體系和立體化服務能力。第一步:搭台,聯合多方資源,篩選優質標的,搭建科創企業金融服務生態圈。興業銀行過去基於中小銀行的同業生態圈正在擴容升級為銀行+非銀機構的同業生態圈,聯合政府部門、股權投資機構、券商、會計師事務所、律所等多方優勢資源,共同搭建科創企業金融服務平台。政府提供的優質科創企業名單、頭部私募優選的投資標的,是興業銀行下一步跟投跟貸、配套各項金融服務的重要基礎。例如:興業銀行通過興業資管與君聯資本共同投資“興投資”平台客户乖寶食品。第二步:賦能,集團聯動,非銀子公司落地股權投資,私行及信託客户資金對接優質資產。資產端,興銀理財與興業信託旗下的私募股權機構興業國信資管(後簡稱興業資管)是興業銀行集團內兩張重要的私募股權投資牌照,是興業銀行對科創企業進行股權投資的主要載體。資金端,興業銀行私行客户以及集團內其他資管類子公司(如興業信託等)客户的資金是重要的資金方,對接上述興業銀行組織獲取的優質資產。例如:興業資管投資依圖科技、興銀理財與武嶽峯資本共同投資燧原科技。第三步:深耕,通過綜合化的金融服務實現多點收入落地,銀行、客户、被投資企業共贏。企業端,興業銀行以股東身份為支點,撬動各業務條線金融服務與產業鏈上下游融資,最終通過結算、託管、信貸、消費金融、按揭等商行業務落地收入。零售端,客户認購私募理財產品,興業銀行實現財富管理手續費收入。私行客户端,股權投資退出時形成的投資回報是其重要收益,這也是興業銀行通過資產端能力帶動客户端和負債端發展的重要體現。對三步走策略的案例分析表明,興業銀行的“商行+投行”戰略具備有效服務新經濟企業的能力,這既是有巨大發展潛力的好賽道,也符合我國經濟轉型升級的大方向和監管導向,當前估值遠未反映其核心競爭力和長遠發展潛力,上市銀行中預期差最大,目標價35 元/股,對應1.2X 21 年PB,當前股價對應0.73 倍2021年PB,上行空間69%。我們預計,興業銀行2021-2023 年歸母淨利潤同比增長15.0%、15.2%、15.7%,維持買入評級和A 股銀行板塊首推。
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