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李寧(02331.HK):業績大超預期 淨利率創歷史新高
格隆匯 06-28 00:01
核心觀點李寧發佈21H1 盈利預喜,預計上半年收入增長超過60%,淨利潤增長超過163%(對應18 億元),大超市場預期。新疆棉事件+肖戰代言+產品力持續提升等因素催化,推動上半年收入遠超行業增速。21 年3 月的新疆棉事件激發了消費者的愛國主義熱潮,作為國潮領軍品牌的李寧迎來了歷史性的發展機遇,21Q1 李寧的零售流水增長高達80%-90%高段,4-6 月國潮勢能延續,根據淘數據,耐克阿迪等國際品牌在4-5 月實現負增長,李寧等國內品牌大幅承接流失客羣;明星代言方面,4 月肖戰代言推動李寧客羣進一步年輕化和銷售高增長;產品力方面,李寧的專業運動線(和弜兩大科技平台支撐)和時尚運動線(中國李寧等)均持續領跑國內品牌,近年來在消費者心中的認可度不斷提升。上半年淨利率提升至18%,創出歷史新高。除了收入增長外,我們認為,淨利率超預期的核心原因在於經營效率的大幅改善,推測如下:1)折扣回收幅度好於預期,推動直營渠道毛利率回升;2)線下直營門店受益於經營槓桿,費用率大幅下滑;3)高利潤率的電商和中國李寧產品佔比提升;4)管理層對於供應鏈整合、零售效率提升等方面做出的持續努力。耐克的最新財報表現也大超市場預期,佐證全球運動賽道經歷疫情侯快速回復,目前整體處於較高景氣度。截至5 月31 日,FY21Q4 收入同比增長96%至123.4 億美元,淨利潤達15.1 億美元,實現扭虧。其中大中華區增速為17%,受制於新疆棉事件增速明顯低於其他區域,但從流水錶現來看,6 月零售表現已同比持平,相比於4 月和5 月實現大幅改善。財務預測與投資建議根據21H1 盈利預喜,我們上調未來三年的盈利預測(上調了收入,毛利率,下調了費用率),預計公司2021-2023 年每股收益分別為1.44、1.74 和2.14元(原2021-23 年為0.92、1.19 和1.50 元),參考可比公司估值(2021年平均 46 倍),維持30%的溢價,對應目標價為101.4 港幣,維持“買入”評級。風險提示:疫情波動、經濟持續減速和潮流變化等行業零售的可能影響;公司管理效率提升的進度可能不及預期等
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