天壇生物(600161):厲兵秣馬 整裝待發
新設漿站,漿源拓展可期。2020 年公司新開業漿站3 家,截至2020 年底在營單採血漿站(含分站)數量達55 家。2021 年6 月11 日,公司公吿同意出資新設6 個漿站(睢寧上生、臨城上生、環縣蘭生、民樂蘭生、寧縣蘭生、鎮原蘭生),目前公司規劃內的漿站(含分站)達66 個。我們認為公司的漿源拓展已進入快車道,下半年起應重點關注公司新漿站申請進展。定增落地,新產能釋放。公司新規劃了永安血制、雲南血制和蘭州血制,設計產能投漿量為1200 噸/年,共計新增3600 噸/年的產能,我們預計新產能陸續投產後公司的血漿處理能力將達到3500-4000 噸/年(目前生產規模設計產能達2000 噸以上,再考慮一定的產能利用率折算)。目前永安血制項目已完成安裝工程及工藝、設備等驗證工作,已開始投漿試生產(工藝驗證),我們預計永安血制將在今年底到明年初期間率先投入使用,另外兩個血制有望在3 年內陸續完成投產。產品結構優化進行時,有望隨新血制投產而逐步落地。成都蓉生PCC 於2020年取得生產註冊批件,其他在研管線方面,成都蓉生注射用重組八因子、層析靜丙(pH4、10%)、鉅細胞病毒靜丙、纖原和蘭州血制PCC 正在開展Ⅲ期臨牀研究,注射用重組人凝血因子Ⅶa 和皮下注射人免疫球蛋白率先申報臨牀並獲受理。我們認為隨着公司新血制的陸續投產,公司的新產品將逐步落地。存量採漿能力仍有改善空間。公司2020 年採漿量為1713.51 噸,目前公司的55 家在營漿站(含分站)中3 家是20 年年內開業,我們預計未有太多貢獻,另外52 家中成都蓉生下屬有22 個漿站,2016 年蓉生實現採漿量683噸,假設CAGR 為10%,我們預計到2020 年對應將近1000 噸的採漿量,則其他30 家漿站對應近700 噸的採漿量,單站採漿量約23 噸,我們認為公司未來除了新增漿量的預期以外,還有存量採漿能力的改善預期。盈利預測:我們預計公司2021-2023 年歸母淨利潤分別為7.76 億元、9.56億元、11.75 億元,增速分別為21.4%、23.3%、22.8%,對應EPS 分別為0.56 元、0.70 元、0.86 元。公司是血製品行業的龍頭企業,經過了3 年整合期以後,目前已經進入了發展新階段,我們給予公司2021 年58-68X 的PE,對應合理價值區間為32.76-38.41 元(對應PB 5.21-6.11 倍,對應PS11.23-13.17 倍,參考可比公司,我們認為估值處於合理水平),維持“優於大市”評級。風險提示:銷售渠道改革及採漿量不達預期的風險,行業競爭加劇的風險,採漿成本上升的風險。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.