仙鶴股份(603733):高性能紙基功能材料龍頭 成長路徑清晰
產線調配靈活,綁定優質客户。特種紙具有產能小、品類多特點,因此單賽道規模較小,仙鶴股份作為業內龍頭通過自研產線,掌握靈活轉產能力(單產線可快速切換多種產品、短時間內完成切換),迅速響應下游需求變化,下游客户數量超2000 個,目前與當納利、安姆科、利樂、艾莉等全球龍頭保持長期合作關係。目前仙鶴形成7 大系列、60 餘種產品,成為市場綜合全面、客户多、市佔率高的公司。數字化賦能&技改帶動人效提升。仙鶴股份加速推動數字化賦能,進行生產線真空系統改造,打造“數字化仙鶴”工業4.0。基於此,2016-2020 年公司人均創收由75.7 萬增長到137.7 萬(CAGR 為16.2%),人均創利由7.3 萬增長到20.4 萬(CAGR 為29.2%)。多重措施平滑週期。公司成本結構中原材料佔比約66%,其中木漿佔比約45%,公司通過多重措施平滑週期,1)10 萬噸自主漿;2)優化採購,備貨期靈活適應市場;3)21 年1 月/2 月/3 月分別提價500/500/1000-2000 元/噸,4 月、5 月如噴繪熱轉印用紙等需求旺盛紙種上調幅度更可觀;據我們測算,若紙價平均提漲落地達1500 元/噸,即可完全覆蓋原材料漲價。4)業務多元、靈活轉產有效平滑下游波動成長路徑清晰,消費屬性增強。據公司公吿2020 年特種紙產能100 萬噸,成長路徑清晰,且未來主要佈局食品醫療、熱轉印、標籤離型等板塊,聚焦消費領域且進一步分散,議價能力增強。限塑令下食品醫療板塊打開市場空間,2020 年收入佔比約17%,我們預計2021 年提升至20%以上且未來持續提升,估值體系有望重構。盈利預測:仙鶴股份屬特種紙業內領先,成長路徑清晰,產品多元化佈局且產業鏈一體化平滑週期,預計公司2021-2023 年收入分別為68.90、86.42、103.35 億元,同比增長42.3%、25.4%、19.6%,歸母淨利潤11.74、13.20、15.67 億元,同比增長63.7%、12.4%、18.7%,對應PE 估值分別為19.5X、17.3X、14.6X;首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。風險提示:原材料價格大幅波動、產能不達預期、行業競爭加劇。
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