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波司登(03998.HK)2021財年業績點評:砥礪考驗 修煉內功 持續進化
格隆匯 06-25 00:00
波司登2021 財年業績延續強勁表現,收入增長11.2%,歸母淨利潤增長42.1%。 良好的表現是公司在產品/品牌/運營上不斷提升的證明,看好長期持續進化,維持“買入”評級。 營收/歸母淨利潤分別+11.2%/42.1%,符合預期。1)營收及利潤:公司2021財年實現收入135.89 億元(+11.2%),歸母淨利潤17.1 億元(+42.1%)。其中FY2021H2 收入達89.07 億元(+14.7%),歸母淨利潤達12.2 億元(+42.3%),環比上半財年加速回暖。2)毛利及費用:2021 財年公司毛利率提升至58.6%(+3.6pcts),達歷史最高水平,主要系①折扣和成本改善;②產品提價;③自營佔比提升。全年銷售費用率為35.6%(+0.5pct),其中FY2021H2 銷售費用率小幅優化,為40.6%(-0.1pct),全年管理費用率小幅上升至7.6%(+0.6pct),主因股權激勵費用影響。3)現金流:公司2021 財年實現經營活動淨現金流31.3億元,大幅增長主因公司供應鏈金融改革成效顯著,應付款增長7.7 億元,應收款下降3.2 億元,現金流情況優異。 運營效率改善:剔除疫情與戰略性備料因素,公司存貨週轉優於同行業。2021財年公司存貨週轉天數為175 天(+20 天),存貨餘額26.4 億元,其中原材料8.0 億元(+78%),製成品18.4 億元(-19%),公司期初庫存水平較高,下半財年原材料價格攀升,公司戰略性進行原材料貯備採購,對週轉造成一定影響。剔除疫情影響(12 天)及期末備料增加(8 天)後,公司存貨週轉天數為155 天,連續三個財年保持穩定並優於同行業。 業務拆分:主品牌拉動業績增長,自營佔比大幅提升。1)品牌羽絨服:品牌羽絨服業務營收108.9 億元(+14.5%),毛利率63.7%(+3.9pcts)。分渠道看,自營/批發收入分別達82.3 億元(+46.2%)和24.6 億元(-29.2%)。2021 財年關閉低效門店(羽絨服淨關店716 家),提升自營佔比至43.5%(+5.3pcts)。 分品牌看,主品牌波司登營收99.9 億元(+18.9%)佔品牌羽絨服收入91.8%。 雪中飛品牌收入達5.5 億元(+10.7%)。冰潔品牌收縮線下渠道轉型線上,全年實現收入1.5 億元(-28.6%)。2)線上銷售高速增長:公司線上收入達35.8億元(+52.8%),波司登品牌銷售單價超過1800 元的羽絨服佔比達31.8%(+4.3pcts),雙十一蟬聯天貓服飾行業第二名,中國服飾品牌第一名。 產品/品牌亮點頻出,不斷修煉運營內功。亮眼表現下,是公司持續在產品/品牌/運營方面修煉內功的成果。1)產品上,公司加大研發力度,承接南極科考/登峯技術;並注重融入時尚特徵,聯名高緹耶舉行“新一代羽絨服”大秀。2)品牌上,貫徹羽絨服主航道戰略,通過新媒體數字化投放模型,提升年輕人羣品牌認識。3)運營上,公司優化直營與經銷商門店訂貨結構,經銷商首次訂貨比例降至30%以下,其餘在旺季通過拉式補貨、快速上新及小單快反的形式進行補單(旺季補單頻次>8 次,快反週期7-18 天)。同時公司建立一體化庫存管理平台,實現對全國直營9 大倉與經銷商12 小倉的庫存統一管理,不斷優化補單、庫銷比指標,實現庫存高效管理。 風險因素:氣候變暖的風險;原材料價格上漲超預期;未能把握流行趨勢。 投資建議:考慮到公司2021 財年業績良好,伴隨產品/品牌/運營上不斷提升,公司有望不斷強化自身優勢。因此上調公司2022/23 財年EPS 預測至0.21/0.27元(原預測為0.19/0.23 元),新增2024 財年EPS 預測0.34 元。參考公司歷史平均估值水平,結合全球羽絨服龍頭加拿大鵝和Moncler 長期穩態估值,給予公司目標估值FY2022 年26 倍PE,對應目標價6.20 港元,維持“買入”評級。
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