常熟銀行(601128):貸款定價與息差見底
公司近況近期我們對常熟銀行進行調研,就貸款利率、效能提升等問題溝通交流。我們預計常熟銀行貸款收益率下行已基本見底,息差收窄企穩,盈利增長將於下半年恢復至兩位數水平。評論普惠政策對貸款定價的衝擊基本結束,息差見底。2019年起國家定義普惠小微貸款為單户授信1000萬元以下的貸款,並要求國有五大行2019年、2020年、2021年不低於30%,40%,30%,普惠企業綜合融資成本同比降低1ppt.0.5ppt以上、無要求。常熟銀行1000萬元以下的貸款佔比約71%,貸款收益率受到衝擊,由2018年的7.22%下降至2020年的6.46%。考慮到目前大行普惠貸款利率已降低至保本微利狀態(低於4%),繼續下行的空間不大,此外,政策也不再要求普惠利率進一步下降(2021年只提出了增速和首貸户的要求),我們預計常熟銀行貸款收益率下行迎來尾聲。根據常熟銀行調研反饋,目前新發放貸款利率平穩,存量貸款重定價已基本結束。堅持做小做散,深挖信用類個人經營性貸款,有利於息差上行。從銀行自身來看,常熟銀行表示:1)要堅持做小做散,降低單户貸款規模(重點放在户均100萬元以下的貸款),與大行錯位競爭,獲得更高的收益率(一筆200萬元的貸款利率696+,一筆20萬元的貸款利率月9%+);2)在維持風險水平不變的情況下,提升信用類貸款比重,有利於收益率提升,2020年報披露,常熟銀行個人經營性貸款不良率0.92%6,其中信用類不良率0.56%,低於平均水平,而收益率高出約100bp綜合金融服務提升人效。常熟銀行小微貸款的客户經理平均管户餘額約為3千多萬元,對應140-150户,銀行預計150-200户可能是極限。銀行更多希望通過綜合金融服務提高效率,即向一個客户提供更多產品。因此在小微業務打法上,從原先獨立的事業部管理轉型為分支機構統一管理,對公、個貸、小微、存貸款各項業務融合發展;考核亦更看重效率效益,而非規模。科技賦能提高運營效率。常熟銀行藉助科技手段實現管理智能化、提升客户體驗、提高員工工作效率、改善風控水平。獲客方面,由於農商行客羣較為下沉,難以完全依靠科技,銀行表示傳統方法如掃樓掃街、走村串户、口口相傳、同業交流可能更為有效。聯合貸方面,銀行表示有所嘗試但未形成規橫,少量合作的部分也是完全自主風控。常熟銀行預計線上貸款短期不會大發展,一是由於風控技術還不成熟,三是由於涉及跨區域經營。估值與建議維持盈利預測與目標價9.93元不變。公司目前交易於0.9x 2021E P/B,目標價對應1.42x 2021E P/B和58%上漲空間。維持跑贏行業評級。風險息差下行甚於預期;資產質量表現不及預期。
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