You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
三棵樹(603737):產品創新+員工激勵 助力高速成長
格隆匯 06-25 00:00
公司近況6月24日公司公吿了第五期員工持股計劃,同時近期我們邀請了三棵樹管理層參加2021年中金中期策略會交流,對公司業務狀況進行了深入交流。評論推出第五期員工,員工覆蓋範圍繼續擴大。6月24日,公司公吿開展第五期員工持股計劃,其中覆蓋總人數不超過5000人,資金規模上限不超過20億元(以177元/股計算股票總數約1130萬股,約佔公司總股本的3.0%)。我們估計,若第五期員工持股計劃完成後,與第四期的合計覆蓋人數約7000(剔除重疊),佔公司2020年底總人數超80%,基本達到了全員覆蓋;同時實控人洪傑董事長提供10%的資金保底收益率,彰顯了其對公司發展的強勁信心。我們認為,公司連年採取員工持股計劃,將自身發展紅利與員工分享,有利於調動員工主觀能動性,並支撐公司長期高速成長。前期建設步入收穫期,但因成本上行存短期壓力。去年疫情期間公司逆勢人員擴張,其中2020年新增銷售人員約-1200人(較2019年+~60%),其銷售費用上行壓制了利潤釋放。我們估算,隨去年新增員工逐步成熟、效率釋放,公司有望步入快速收穫期,推動2021營收保持-60%增長。同時,公司規劃未來員工招聘速度有望穩定,而規模效應下薪酬、廣吿等費用也將不斷被攤薄,利潤彈性有望顯超營收增速。但是由於今年以來,原材料價格不斷上行(其中鈦白粉/乳液2Q21YTD均價較2020有-50%的上漲),毛利率或有較大壓力。展望下半年,我們認為公司對各系列產品的提漲逐漸落地,並覆蓋其成本漲幅,利潤率有望逐漸迴歸正常水平,且若下半年原材料價格回落,利潤則存超預期空間。產品創新+渠道賦能,助力高端化轉型。我們觀察到,產品方面:近期公司產品創新不斷加速,在B/C端分別推出藝石漆/藝術漆等高附加值產品;渠道方面:公司正加大新零售業態投入,在核心城市開設大面積直營門店(現E基本達到盈虧平衡),通過塗料成品板的方式給予客户直觀體驗。我們看好直營渠道+高端產品展示下,公司高毛利產品佔比有望加速推進,高端化進程有望提升,品牌形象亦將逐步提升。估值與建議我們維持2021/22e EPS 2.23/3.48元不變,當前股價對應2021/22e81.0x/51.9x P/E,我們維持跑贏行業評級,考慮到公司費用投入趨緩,利潤率有望逐步提升,我們上調目標價12%至200元,對應2022e 57.5x P/E,隱含11%的上行空間。風險原材料價格波動風險,竣工需求不及預期,應收賬款回收不及預期。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account