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中偉股份(300919)重大事項點評:定增擴產 夯實行業地位
格隆匯 06-25 00:00
事項: 事件:公司於2021 年6 月24 日晚發佈定增公吿,擬定向增發募集不超過50億元,其中35 億元用於廣西北部灣產業基地三元項目一期,15 億元用於補充流動資金。 項目情況:廣西北部灣產業基地三元項目一期總投資59.9 億元,共建設6 個三元前驅體生產車間模塊、3 條硫酸鎳(MSP)生產線、2 條硫酸鎳(鎳溶解)生產線、1 條硫酸鈷(氫氧化鈷)生產線及公共配套建築等。 設計產能:三元前驅體產能18 萬噸/年,硫酸鎳溶液產能11 萬金噸/年(包括鎳溶解與MSP 產線),硫酸鈷溶液1 萬金噸/年。建設為30 個月,包括項目施工、設備採購及安裝調試。本項目税後IRR 為21.85%,投資回收期為7.36 年。 評論: 向產業鏈上游延伸成行業趨勢,“前驅體+循環”一體化佈局構建戰略成本優勢。項目建成投產後,預計2024 年底公司三元前驅體產能將達到40 萬噸(含四鈷),鎳鈷冶煉產能將達到15 萬金噸,鎳鈷冶煉自給率將達到60%左右,通過一體化佈局,將上游硫酸鎳和硫酸鈷原材料供應納入生產環節,能夠充分發揮產業鏈協同效應,保證材料穩定供應和品質保障,以更低成本獲取原材料並提升三元前驅體材料性能,進而增強盈利能力,有利於公司持續提升市場競爭力,鞏固行業領先地位。 公司深度綁定LG,產能快速擴張,持續佈局上游鎳資源補短板,未來有望增厚業績。1)客户:公司已與LG 化學、廈門鎢業、當升科技、振華新材、天津巴莫、三星 SDI 等客户建立了穩定的合作關係。2020 年公司前三大客户(LG化學、廈門鎢業、特斯拉-LG)合計銷售金額佔比達到73.3%,佔比較高且持續提升,其中2020 年上海特斯拉的三元前驅體為公司獨供。2)產能:截至2020 年底,公司三元前驅體和四氧化三鈷年產能分別為11 萬噸和2.5 萬噸,2021 年底將分別達到19 萬噸和3.5 萬噸,遠期2025 年合計規劃年產能將達到50 萬噸,產能擴張速度全球第一。3)鎳資源:I、公司引入青山控股子公司上海菁茂作為公司IPO 的戰略投資者,並簽訂戰略合作協議,預計2021-2030年總供應公司鎳金屬當量30-100 萬噸。II、公司與青山實業簽訂為期1 年總量達4 萬噸的高冰鎳供貨協議,自2021 年10 月起實行。III、公司與RIGQUEZA簽署紅土鎳礦冶煉年產高冰鎳含鎳金屬3 萬噸(印尼)項目合資協議,總投資約為2.43 億美元。 盈利預測:我們預計公司2021-2023 年歸母淨利潤分別為10/14.5/21 億元,對應EPS 分別為1.76/2.55/3.69 元,對應PE 分別為80/55/38 倍。考慮公司為全球三元前驅體龍頭,全球市佔率逐年提升,並且客户方面深度綁定LG,未來隨着上游資源佈局落地,公司毛利率有望顯著提升,我們給予公司2022 年60倍PE,對應目標價153 元,維持“強推”評級。 風險提示:新能源汽車發展不及預期,技術路線變更,原材料價格波動。
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