交銀國際洪灝:預期下半年價值板塊估值繼續迴歸 料阿裏(09988.HK)股價再跌風險低
交銀國際董事總經理兼研究部主管洪灝表示,去年恆指是唯一收跌的全球主要指數,隨着恆指中科技股比重大幅增加,而其估值目前未完全迴歸,或會繼續拖累恆指表現,並指今年二月初恆指曾接近3萬點,相信在今年表現來說「已經差不多」。
對於美國長債息回落,市場預計若下半年通脹見頂,資金或會重回成長股,但他認爲,相比起美股成長股整體調整幅度,內地成長股目前估值仍然較貴,相信價值板塊估值迴歸在下半年仍然繼續。
交銀國際在互聯網行業中偏好騰訊(00700.HK)和阿裏巴巴(09988.HK),預計今年互聯網領先企業的業務投入將超過1,500億元,或對盈利造成高個位數至雙位數影響,但相信後續新興業務會帶來更大好處,看好行業中長期表現。目前阿裏監管風險基本緩解,雖然短期加大投入,但重點業務投入有助加強低線城市滲透率,而且業務穩定性強,相信股價再下調風險低。至於騰訊收入和利潤未來兩年複合增長率預計可維持兩成,核心業務中長期估值亦仍有提升空間。
地產股方面,交銀國際認爲,本地地產股最壞時期已過,目前估值不高,有待通關作爲催化劑,並認爲充裕的流動性和低息環境將支持樓價進一步上升,預計明年底之前聯儲局將保持利率在目前水平,下半年本港樓價將上升5%,該行偏好在未來2至3年有更多新盤推出且住宅貨源充裕的開發商,首選新鴻基(00016.HK),因其土地儲備充足、執行力強和估值吸引。
另外,交銀國際在醫藥股首選藥明生物(02269.HK),銀行股首選招商銀行(03968.HK),消費股首選申洲國際(02313.HK),汽車股首選中升控股(00881.HK)。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.