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《大行報告》中金:芯片短缺影響內地車企6月上旬產銷
中金髮表的研究報告指,汽車板塊持續跑贏,下半年有望進入加庫存週期,根據車險上牌量數據,中國國乘用車5月上險量總計169.5萬輛,按月增加2.6%,按年增長6.3%。其中轎車上險量總計79.2萬輛,按月8.7%,按年增長7%;SUV上險量總計78.9萬輛,按月增長4.5%,按年增長5.2%;MPV上險量總計9.6萬輛,按月下降7.9%,按年增長9.5%。該行的調查指,業內一致預期下半年缺芯情況將得到緩解,行業將逐漸進入加庫存週期,建議關注景氣度較高的自主品牌整車龍頭。

該行指出,缺芯影響延續,致6月上旬產銷相對平淡,根據乘聯會數據披露,6月第一週日均零售2.5萬輛,按年下降7%,日均批發2.5萬輛,按年下降26%,6月第二週日均零售3.5萬輛,按年下降2%,日均批發3.3萬輛,按年下降17%。中金認爲6月上旬批發數據按年下滑較多是因爲全球芯片缺貨的影響在持續,部分廠商月初產銷節奏相對較慢。

另外,該行指出新能源車加速滲透,新產品將推動造車新勢力進入上行週期,根據車險上牌量數據,新能源車5月上險量總計17.9萬輛,按月增加6.7%,按年增長167.9%。5月上牌量中新能源車滲透率爲10.6%,按月增0.4個百分點,按年增6.4個百分點。中金認爲融入了新技術的造車新勢力的改款車型(如5月發佈的中期改款理想ONE)和新產車型(如即將上市的小鵬P5)的推出將推動造車新勢力進入上行週期,建議關注蔚來(NIO.US),理想(LI.US)等。

該行看好全產業鏈景氣度,推薦自主整車龍頭如長安汽車等,關注造車新勢力如蔚來汽車,理想汽車等,推薦零部件龍頭福耀玻璃(03606.HK)、星宇股份(601799.SH)。另外北美新能源政策加碼推薦北美收入佔比較高的耐世特(01316.HK),以及特斯拉(TSLA.US)全球供應商旭升股份(603305.SH),北美電動車供應商拓普集團(601689.SH),一體化壓鑄相關標的文燦股份(603348.SH)。(el/u) ~

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