德銀:上調正榮地產(6158.HK)目標價至6.50港元 維持買入評級
機構:德意志銀行
評級:維持買入
目標價:6.50港元

儘管毛利率低,但收入的質量很高
正榮報吿了20年核心淨利潤人民幣33億元,按年增長19%。歸屬於股東的核心淨利潤(不包括公平值變動及匯兑損益等)為人民幣21.5億元,按年增長5.3%。管理層宣佈每股末期股息為0.15港元,同比增長50%,超出了我們的預期。20年核心利潤派息率已提高至23%,19年為16%。由於利息成本的降低(20年6.5% vs 19年7.5%),銷售及行政支出佔收入比降低(20年6.4% vs 19年6.7%),更低的税率,以及更多的聯合營項目的利潤貢獻,收益是有所增長的。
專注於高質量增長
正榮的目標是實現合約銷售的權益部分提高15%,因此提高收入的權益比例。正榮新進入了長三角重點城市的周邊三線城市,並提高了福建城市的權益比。最後,它顯着的改善了其信貸指標,並有可能在21年置換大部分高成本債務。
估值與建議
我們預測正榮在18-20年温和增長之後將進入高盈利增長階段。我們維持買入評級,並基於2021年8.1倍市盈率設定目標價格,該價格是基於每股收益的2年複合增長率27%和0.3x PEG估算得出的6.50港元。我們相信正榮的信貸改善前景,這已開始反映在其損益表中,正榮應該為B級房地產同行中PEG的最高水平(0.25-0.3倍)。
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