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《大行報告》摩通重予李寧(02331.HK)「增持」評級 目標價92元
阿思達克 06-16 14:36
摩通發表的研究報告重予李寧(02331.HK)「增持」評級,目標價由68元升至92元,認爲公司作爲內地第二大運動品牌,去年市佔率7%。經過2012-2015年的虧損後,公司核心盈利於2016年轉正,到2020年已增約七倍。即使在疫情下市場呈跌勢,公司淨利潤率仍穩定擴張90個基點,主要受惠管理層落力改善供應鏈、產品、渠道及零售營運。展望將來,該行相信公司增長將受惠銷售勢頭及利潤擴張,估計李寧淨利潤率將由2020年的11.7%,增至2023年的14.8%,與安踏之間的距離收窄。該行估算2021-23年公司銷售及盈利的年複合增長分別爲24%及34%,摩通對其2021年盈利預測較市場預期高約5%,以反映其銷售增長估算較高及利潤擴張等的影響。

該行認爲受惠管理層提出的舉措,公司基本面有改善,其中公司與個別供應商合作優化供應鏈,令鞋類及服裝供應商數目有所下降;而來自頂級產品的貢獻亦有所增加,首100位的產品於2020年分別貢獻鞋類及服裝銷售的50%及30%,按年擴闊3-4個百分點,雖然期內產品數量減少20%,不過熱銷產品的銷量則升30%;公司亦有加強零售效率,零售渠道經營利潤率提升至逾20%水平;此外,在庫存方面亦有妥善管理。

展望2021年該行認爲批發、零售及電商將有約兩成的增長,估計毛利率將按年擴闊150個基點,主要受惠折扣減少、供應鏈效率提升及產品組合改善等。去年公司經營開支與銷售比例按年收窄2.9個百分點,今年該行估計比例將再收窄約150個基點,並料核心李寧品牌、中國李寧及李寧YOUNG將分別淨開店200、100及150家。(el/u) ~

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