盈選報告 | 經濟邊際放緩不一定是壞事,關注光伏、旅遊出行板塊
市場策略
▍任澤平在最近演講分享道:“到了二三季度,經濟存在邊際放緩的壓力,這不一定是壞事,因爲股市不是經濟的晴雨表,股市是貨幣的晴雨表。”
“大宗商品價格最猛烈的上漲的階段可能結束了,高點臨近了。”
“市場對貨幣政策收緊的預期和焦慮會緩解。”
▍中泰證券李迅雷表示,總體來講,2021年是一個震盪之年。從產業的角度來講,在新舊動能轉換過程中,還是看好新興行業,比如大消費,包括醫藥生物行業,主要是與人口老齡化、與消費升級相關的行業;其次,看好新能源行業。
▍安信國際認爲,下半年隨着全球主要經濟體羣體免疫的實現,服務消費對貨物消費的替代將會更爲普遍地展開。基於未來一個季度流動性寬鬆有望延續,市場並不具備持續下跌的基礎,投資者可趁市場回調把握龍頭科技股及消費股低吸機會。
熱點機會
▍光伏板塊:
國泰君安表示,伴隨着光伏行業熱點難點問題座談會的召開,以及光伏行業協會呼籲抵制囤貨哄價,行業重大拐點已經出現,光伏板塊有望獲得估值和盈利的重估。
興業證券則認爲,結合多因素判斷,光伏上遊原材料價格歷史性大頂已經鑄就,雖因需求旺盛,短期未必像樣跌幅,但上漲可能性已經很小,本輪價格上漲,預期推動是關鍵力量之一,當前政策和行業基本面已經不再支持預期繼續上調,預計預期穩定之後,行業將開始持續拿貨,成交將進入放量區間。
港股相關標的有:信義光能(00968)、新特能源(01799)等。
▍旅遊出行板塊:
西部證券研報指:端午節國內旅遊市場持續向好,遊客出行主要以高質量短途遊爲主。雖然近期全國多地疫情有所反覆,但由於疫情防控良好疊加疫苗接種穩步推進,人們出遊熱情不減;據攜程數據顯示,截至6月2日,通過攜程預訂的旅遊訂單量同比+135%,機票的訂單量已經與19年同期持平,預計今年端午節出遊人次將達1億人次。此外,“酒店式度假”成爲另一大趨勢,即選擇一家度假型酒店,以酒店爲目的地進行長達2-3天的深度旅行,吃住玩一站式消費;據攜程數據顯示,端午節周邊酒店的預定量較19年同期增長約三成,其中高星酒店佔比近五成,較五一節提高了近一成,出遊品質再度升級。相關港股標的有:攜程集團-S(09961)、同程藝龍(00780)。
▍體育用品板塊:
瑞信表示,國產運動品牌持續跑贏國際品牌運動服裝基本需求保持健康,行業首選安踏體育(02020),因爲對其品牌執行和旗下Amer品牌取得好轉持樂觀態度,同時也看好李寧(02331)強勁品牌勢頭。安踏體育向直營店批發轉型實現了10-30%零售額增長,李寧在服裝和鞋類領域的折扣收窄,價格漲幅最大。
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