《大行報告》匯豐研究指碼頭持續擠塞續推高航運費率 海豐國際(01308.HK)及中遠海控(01919.HK)料追落後
匯豐研究發表研究報告,指截至上周五(4日),上海出口集裝箱運價指數(SCFI)按周升3.4%再創歷史新高,在蘇伊士運河堵塞事件起十周以來累升41%,在強勁需求下港口擠塞及空船航行以恢復航程表推動這一波升勢;本季至今平均按季亦升12%。
報告稱,深圳鹽田港的擠塞進一步惡化。馬士基並指擠塞情況已蔓延至鄰近蛇口港。該行料有關干擾將令整個供應鏈出現遲滯,包括歐美碼頭,將費率正常化推遲至2022年。另外,明年美國西岸港口將與美國國際碼頭及倉儲工會(ILWU)討論僱員合約,歷史上經常引起貨運延滯,料擠塞情況將延續。
匯豐研究認為,市場仍未留意航運費率上行動力較原先預期為長,料市場對航運股的估算有上行調整風險。過去四星期,航運股股價表現分化,一些創新高一些在較低水平徘徊。隨著市場逐漸確認板塊強勁基本面,料落後股如海豐國際(01308.HK)及中遠海控(01919.HK)將在同業間追落後。
該行予海豐國際及中遠海控「買入」評級,目標價分別45元及24元。
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