《大行報告》高盛料成品油消費稅利好國有油企 上調中石化評級至「中性」 偏好中石油和中海油
高盛發表研究報告指,預期內地成品油新消費稅落地後,將減少石油產品進口,部分紓緩下游供應過剩風險。該行上調國有石油公司明年提煉使用率預測2個百分點,並上調提煉毛利預測每桶一美元。考慮本土市場今明兩年獨立新增產能添置仍受關注,該行料新消費稅將抵銷國有石油公司經營及提煉毛利率下行風險。
與宏觀團隊看法一致,高盛料今年下半年逐漸繃緊的原油基本面將推升布蘭特期油價格至每桶80美元。在需求面方面,報告料未來數個月大規模疫苗接種將推動復甦,已發展經濟體出行改善有助抵銷對南亞及拉美需求疲弱。供應面方面,報告料伊朗原油生產提早至今年10月重啟,較原先料明年6月提早,但料被油組及其夥伴國增產速度放緩所抵銷。
高盛表示,由於下游展望改善,中石化(00386.HK)投資評級由「沽售」上調至「中性」,上調其2021至2023年EBITDA預測分別6%、10%及11%,以反映毛利率改善,目標價由4元升至4.8元。以企業價值對EBITDA計,該行指其現估值較五年歷史均值低出近一個標準差。
報告補充,在石油產業鏈,仍偏好上游多於下游。現時供需關係利好上游油企,但對下游煉油廠帶來更困難的採購環境。該行下半年偏好中石油(00857.HK)、中海油(00883.HK)多於下游的中石化。該行上調中石油2021至2023年各年EBITDA預測分別0%、4%及5%,目標價由4.9元升至5.3元,評級「買入」,並列入「確信買入」名單。
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