一文综合大行於小米(01810.HK)公布季绩後最新评级、目标价及观点
小米(01810.HK)今早股价先升後收窄,盘中曾高见29.35元一度抢高4.3%,最新报28.55元升1.4%,券商指小米季绩强劲,但同时关注小米智能手机未来毛利率有放缓风险,美银证券估计会受到中国市场相关需求会有所放慢、公司较高价格手机型号在第三季末旺季时减少所影响,并指其目前估值已较同业有溢价。
小米昨日(26日)收市後公布今年首季业绩,按非国际财务报告准则,经调整净利润按年升1.64倍至60.69亿元人民币,高於本网综合7间券商预测之上限45.66亿元人民币。期内利润按年升2.6倍至77.9亿元人民币,高於本网综合5间券商预测上限的47.1亿元人民币。期内收入按年升54.7%至769亿元人民币。毛利按年增87.4%至142亿元人民币,毛利率按年升3.2个百分点至18.4%,其中智能手机分部毛利率由8.1%升至12.9%。
小米指,在晶片供应紧张下公司仍维持年度销售目标,未作任何调整。疫情令笔记本电脑等产品需求上升,同时於电动车等其他领域的需求也加剧晶片短缺情况,预期今年内根本性改变短缺机会不大。小米料晶片短缺情况对造车无影响,强调集团现时加入造车为时未晚,因市场渗透率仍处低水平。公司亦指,印度疫情转差为印度市场造成非常大挑战,物流运输出现困难,公司会密切关注当地市场变化,调整当地业务,暂未改动全年出货量及市占率目标等。
【季绩胜於市场预期 关注手机业务前景】
野村发表报告,下调对小米投资评级,由「买入」降至「中性」,认为公司大部份正面因素已在股价上反映,指小米股价自3月中以来已累升29%,远胜恒指同期表现,兼且估计公司会迎来不明朗因素,料智能手机付运会巩固,但难以会有惊喜表现,因芯片供应仍然紧张,及料电视产品付运疲弱。
瑞银发表报告,维持对小米「中性」投资评级,目标价由28元升至30元,并上调对小米2021年至2023年每股摊薄盈利预测各13%、12%及10%。该行指,小米首季收入略低於该行原预期,经调整盈利则高於预期。小米首季手机业务、广告业务及毛利亮丽。而摩根大通发表报告,重申对小米「增持」投资评级,对其目标价由32元上调至35元。该行指,小米首季业绩分析员会议所获得讯息全部正面,内地智能手机市场月度活跃用户增长强劲,并提升优越市场份额,公司持续扩张海外市场。美银证券上调对小米目标价,由27.4元上调至30元,维持「中性」评级。该行预期中国及印度第二及第三季智能手机及物联网产品需求疲软,部分地抵销欧洲交付增长利好。
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本网最新综合13间券商对其投资评级及目标价,11间券商上调目标价,9间给予「买入」、「增持」或「跑赢大市」评级。
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
招银国际│买入│34->39.2元
摩根大通│增持│32元->35元
花旗│买入│30元->35元
瑞信│跑赢大市│34.3元->35元
华泰金控│买入│30.1元->34元
里昂│买入│32元->34元
中金│跑赢行业│34元
高盛│买入│30->33元
野村│买入->中性│27->31元
摩根士丹利│增持│31.5元
美银证券│中性│27.4元->30元
瑞银│中性│28元->30元
大和│持有│25元->28元
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券商│观点
招银国际│首季业绩因毛利率改善胜预期,重申「买入」评级
摩根大通│高端化及变现改善推动盈利强劲增长
花旗│季绩胜预期,毛利率展望更具持续性,上调盈利预测
瑞信│首季业绩显着胜预期,基於毛利率胜预期上调业绩预测
华泰金控│季绩胜预期,海外销售正面
里昂│首季业绩亮丽
中金│维持跑赢行业看法
高盛│业绩胜预期具说服力,维持「买入」评级
野村│首季业绩大部分正面因素已反映
摩根士丹利│首季业绩显着胜预期,中国及海外线下有充足增长机会
美银证券│料毛利率转差及竞争将抵销欧洲业务增长
瑞银│手机业务具动力,广告及毛利率亮丽
大和│业绩高期待已在股价上反映
(fc/w)
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