保險行業4月保費數據點評：車險綜改壓力延續
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國君非銀劉欣琦，作者：劉欣琦、謝雨晟
人身險行業累計保費增速進一步放緩，續期推動單月健康險回暖：1-4月保險行業原保險保費收入為21,169億元，同比增長6.5%（前值為7.8%），行業保費環比增速進一步放緩。人身險行業1-4月原保險保費收入16,215億元，同比增長7.3%（前值為8.3%），其中壽險、健康險和意外險分別為13,003億元、2,995億元和218億元，同比分別增長6.7%（前值為7.8%）、11.0%（前值為12.3%）和-5.2%（前值為-4.6%），三大險種的累計保費環比增速均呈現放緩態勢。4月單月壽險業務原保險保費收入1,367億元，同比增長-1.3%（前值為-7.3%），預計受制於20年同期疫情後的短期人口紅利帶來的高基數導致負增長延續；健康險原保險保費收入611億元，同比增長6.1%（前值為-4.3%），預計主要為續保拉動；意外險原保險保費收入52億元，同比-7.1%（前值為-6.7%）。
綜改對財險保費增長的壓力再次顯現，龍頭險企車險市佔率短期被動下降：1-4月財險原保險保費收入4,954億元，同比增長3.7%（前值為5.8%），主要為車險受綜改影響的拖累所致，其中車險和非車險原保險保費收入分別為2,485億元和2,469億元，同比分別-6.9%（前值為-6.2%）和17.1%（前值為19.8%）。值得一提的是，在車險綜改大型險企保費“限速”的影響下，主要上市險企1-4月累計車險市佔率仍延續小幅下行趨勢，人保財險和平安財險的市佔率分別為31.3%（前值為31.6%）和23.4%（前值為23.5%）。4月單月財險原保險保費收入1,145億元，同比-2.6%（前值為5.2%），其中車險原保險保費收入667億元，同比增速-8.5%（前值-4.3%），20年同期基數抬升後車險保費增速受綜改的負面影響逐漸顯現；非車險原保險保費收入478億元，同比增速7.2%（前值15.8%），主要由健康險、家財險、意外險、責任險和工程險貢獻增長，同比分別增長29.5%、28.6%、20.5%、11.4%和9.1%。
資金運用餘額穩步提升，把握利率相對高點加大債券類資產配置：21年1-4月保險行業資產端資金運用餘額為22.62萬億元，較上年末提升4.3%。大類資產配置方面，4月債券市場震盪調整，保險資金把握利率相對高點加大債券類資產的配置比重，其中債券佔比37.0%，環比+0.4pt；股票基金和其他類資產佔比分別為12.8%和38.4%，環比+0.1pt和+0.1pt；銀行存款佔比11.8%，環比-0.5pt。
投資建議：保險行業已充分認知粗放式渠道發展不具可持續性，通過加快渠道向高質量轉型、積極佈局健康管理服務等提升客户經營能力，維持行業“增持”。建議增持堅定推進客户經營轉型且積極佈局醫療生態圈的中國平安，以及“卓越代理人”滿足客户需求的友邦保險。
風險提示：利率超預期下行；新重疾銷售不及預期；人力質量下滑。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
