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造紙板塊持續大爆發!紙價還能漲多久?
格隆匯 05-24 15:17

今日,造紙板塊大幅高開,截至收盤,青山紙業、美利雲、宜賓紙業、岳陽林紙漲停,安妮股份、晨鳴紙業漲超5%,山鷹國際、冠豪高新、太陽紙業等多股均有不同程度上漲。年初至今,造紙板塊指數漲超20%。

紙企大幅提價

 

今年5月以來,國內主要文化紙企業和貿易商發佈多張漲價函,紙價持續暴漲。其中,文化紙普遍漲價200元/噸,白卡紙漲價則達到1000元/噸。

5月19日,玖龍紙業多基地原紙再次上調200,這是玖龍本月第4輪漲價。本月以來,在玖龍已連漲三次。在主流紙企的帶領下,市場跟漲積極性高漲,玖龍基地帶動河北、河南、山東等地四十餘家紙企上調價格,幅度在20-100元/噸。

此前4月份,多家紙企宣佈全面調價。中順潔柔向經銷商、渠道商發出調價通知函,自4月1日開始大幅調整旗下生活用紙產品價格。隨後維達、清風等企業發佈了調價函。

國家統計局數據顯示,2021年3月份,造紙和紙製品業出廠價格環比上漲2.3%,同比上漲2.3%,1-3月同比上漲1.0%。4月份,造紙和紙製品業出廠價格環比上漲0.3%,同比上漲5.0%,1-4月同比上漲2.0%。

 

“限塑令”、需求回暖推動漲價

 

紙漿價格高位震盪,受到了“限塑令”向“禁廢令”推行,市場對於以紙代塑預期增強影響。造紙行業屬於高壁壘行業,在環保政策的推動下,行業的集中度進一步提升。而“限塑令”、“禁廢令”推行,則直接或間接對上游紙漿供給提出了增量需求。“限塑令”的推行使白卡紙需求大幅提升,白卡紙一季度噸紙均價環比提升950/1640元,目前價格已至13000、14000元/噸。

上游原材料紙漿價格上行成為紙價上漲的驅動因素紙漿主要分為木漿、非木漿和廢紙漿。自2003年以來,我國的紙漿進口量居世界之首,且需求量還在逐漸增加。自去年7月份至今年3月份,木漿價格平均上漲超過2500元/噸。受紙漿原料價格上漲,漿紙價格大幅超過紙價,而大宗商品中能源、物流等價格全球性上漲,增加了企業的生產成本,導致企業利潤承壓。今年3月份以來,包括山東太陽集團、山東華泰紙業、晨鳴紙業等多家紙企紛紛宣佈停機檢修。

電商節臨近,帶動需求回暖,繼而推動紙價上行。今年來,廢紙價格持續在高位運行。1月,各類國產廢紙的收購價普遍在2000/噸以上,其中A級廢紙收購價甚至高達2500/噸以上。五一假期過後,國廢需求增長,價格上漲,帶動了箱紙板等價格上漲。即將臨近的“6.18電商節”將提高包裝紙的需求量,下游需求量持續上升。

 

後期或繼續保持強勢

 

在經歷兩年下跌後,造紙企業自去年以來業績實現了快速回升。

根據造紙板塊相關公司披露的2021年Q1業績來看,造紙企業營收、淨利潤呈現了普漲趨勢,行業概念股實現增長數量高達24家,其中有14股淨利潤實現翻倍數增長。其中,齊峯新材淨利潤同比增長了5倍多;晨鳴紙業與青山紙業淨利潤同比增長了4倍多。

造紙板塊一季度業績排名

造紙企業一季度經營向好,造紙業迎上行週期,紙價是否還將繼續強勢?多家券商看好造紙板塊後期走勢。

一季度在經濟復甦下,木漿價格持續上漲,自有漿線價值凸顯。長城證券認為,在“限塑令”、需求回暖推動下,造紙業景氣度持續抬升。後續隨着箱紙板逐漸進入旺季,加上成品紙進口有限,禁塑令以及線上消費帶動需求增長的共同作用下,預計箱板紙價仍有較大提升空間,其中高端品種稀缺性更加凸顯。

國信證券指出,紙價的邊際變化或為市場對紙企定價的最重要錨點,噸紙盈利能力是否還能再創新高,可能會是決定股價是否能突破前高的關鍵因素。木漿系產品繼續執行4月最新價格,白卡紙近期庫存中低位,加之近期主流企業減產檢修計劃,利於價格攀升。

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