《大行报告》瑞银升龙湖(00960.HK)及越秀地产(00123.HK)评级至「买入」 列内地商场未来五年五大趋势
瑞银发表研究报告,指看好内地商场板块,未来五年料有五大趋势,即需要更多的豪华商场、铁路+物业(TOD)为未来模式;轻资产模式及商场管理良性循环下「赢家全取」;由资产管理人至投资经理的业务模式转变;在捕捉消费趋势下会员制成为竞争优势,强化对租客的议价能力。该行料上述趋势最利好华润置地(01109.HK)、华润万象生活(01209.HK),受惠豪华商场及TOD模式,其次为龙湖集团(00960.HK)及越秀地产(00123.HK)、主因TOD模式,以及宝龙地产(01238.HK)、宝龙商业(09909.HK)及恒隆地产(00101.HK),受惠豪华商场。
报告称,以建立经常性收入及增加获得土储渠道而言,料内地商场成为发展商结构增长动力。商场管理良性循环及轻资产模式解释为何商场经理快速扩大市占,料利好润地、华润万象生活及龙湖。
瑞银表示,由於融资成本较低及良好往绩,香港发展商在内地经营商场有优势。它们受惠於内地资产奢侈品回归故事,但亦受累於本港零售物业的一些永久流失,特别是海南免税区。该行料趋势利好恒隆地产、九仓(00004.HK)及太古地产(01972.HK),但利淡新地(00016.HK)及九仓置业(01997.HK)。
该行称,内地发展商现估值相当於今年预测市盈率5倍,低於近年五年平均值的6倍;同时内地物业经理股现估值相当於明年预测市盈率19倍,与近期两年均值相若。该行上调龙湖投资评级由「中性」升至「买入」,目标价升21%至55.5元,并上调2021至2023年盈测介乎2%至8%;另上调越秀地产投资评级由「中性」升至「买入」,目标价大升50%至2.4元。详见另表。
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