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《大行报告》大摩上调本港今年GDP增长预测至6.5% 楼价维持看升3% 首选信置、嘉里建设及新地
阿思达克 05-18 12:17
摩根士丹利发表研究报告指,该行香港经济师Jenny Zheng考虑本港首季经济增长7.9%胜预期後,上调全年增长预测由5%升至6.5%,并预期届2022年增长可维持於疫情前的3%水平,主要受全球需求复苏下强劲商品出口所带动。该行亦料经调整失业率於今年2月7.2%已见顶,料届今年底将回落至4.5%。

大摩称,喜好板块次序维持住宅/零售多於办公室;并补充本港首季GDP反弹及失业率下滑短期最利好办公室板块。该行称,历史上GDP增长及失业率与办公室需求有高度关联。大摩料香港办公室整体租金今年上半年跌5%,随後下半年复苏5%,全年料按年持平。该行料办公室空置率由3月的9.4%下滑至今年12月的7.5%。在这板块偏好置地公司多於太古。

报告表示,料经济复苏加快支持楼价,维持预期今年楼价升3%,明年升幅加快至5%,首选信置(00083.HK)、嘉里建设(00683.HK)及新地(00016.HK)。

大摩补充,失业率下滑料利好低端零售。本地消费亦受消费券计划所提振。由於本港及内地疫苗接种计划进展缓慢及出境限制持续,料今年入境旅游维持疲弱。该行予领展(00823.HK)「增持」评级。详细投资评级及目标价见另表。

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