摩通:下調周大福(1929.HK)等四家珠寶股評級至“中性” 籲趁高鎖定利潤
摩根大通發表研究報吿,指受惠穩固需求復甦,過去數季比較基數較低,以及店鋪積極復業,該行覆蓋的珠寶股本年至今累升25%,同期MSCI中國非必需消費品指數則跌15%。不過,由於增加店鋪競爭趨激烈,自7月起比較基數上升,下調所有四家覆蓋珠寶股投資評級由“增持”降至“中性”,包括周大福(1929.HK)、六福(0590.HK)、周生生(0116.HK)及老鳳祥(600612.SH)。
該行重申相對偏好周大福,維持對其長遠增長軌跡正面看法,但由於大部分正面催化劑已反映,料短期下行風險大於潛在上行空間。該行建議趁高鎖定利潤。
摩通續稱,香港與內地潛在放寬出境限制料利好投資情緒多於基本面。該行認為,本年較後時間放寬限制對香港零售銷售的提振或未及市場預期,由於旅客數量復甦或需時。此外,所有覆蓋珠寶股亦擴大內地業務敞口,攤薄了香港需求。該行料放寬限制對利福國際(1212.HK)及莎莎國際(0178.HK)的利好或大於珠寶股。
再者,報吿稱,隨着更多品牌加快店鋪擴張,未來一年增鋪或更具挑戰性。摩通重申領導品牌如周大福及老鳳祥可帶來穩固客流擴張,但在去年基礎上進一步加快料有難度。
摩通補充,利潤擴張取決於產品組合改善,如果金價不再像去年般急升,料所覆蓋珠寶股毛利率不會強勁擴張。此外,未來12個月經營槓桿料放緩,源於收入增長放慢。該行料僅具有強勁鑽飾產品線珠寶股如周大福可以維持毛利擴張。
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