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《大行報告》大和下調阿里(09988.HK)目標價至290元 評級「買入」
阿思達克 05-14 09:46
大和發表的研究報告指,阿里(09988.HK)第四財季整體收入較市場預期高4%,不過按非通用會計準則計算,核心電商EBITA則較預期低14%,公司對2022財年的收入指引亦未有任何上行驚喜,管理層指將聚焦於積極擴張社區服務、新零售、淘寶特價版等的擴張,估計將進一步拖累其核心電商業務的整體盈利能力,相信短期將為投資帶來憂慮,但認為相關舉措對進一步強化其價值是有需要。此外,阿里現時估值吸引,重申「買入」評級,為該行在大型互聯網企業中首選。

該行認為公司收入勝預期,主要因為非客戶管理及佣金收入高於預期,其中包括物流及國際電商等,而客戶管理及佣金收入表現則符該行預期,管理層估計2022財年收入將達9,300億元人民幣,較市場預期僅高1%。而自今季起公司將繼續披露撇除淘寶特價版後的核心電商EBITA利潤率,相信相關業務自2021財年首財季起已是利潤的主要拖累因素。管理層指出2022財年公司會繼續投資在新業務,包括淘寶特價版、社區團購、本地服務、Lazada等,同時該行估計上半財年EBITA將持平,以反映投資帶來的影響,加上阿里已在第四財季入帳反壟斷相關罰款,對其非通用會計準則EBITA無大影響。

雖然公司第四財季雲業務按非通用會計準則計算EBITA利潤率進一步改善至1.8%,不過收入增長僅37%較該行預期低7%,主要因為期內公司流失了在海外的主要客戶,展望將來阿里雲將繼續推動客戶多元化,及推動包括醫療健康在內的快速增長行業。該行將公司2022至2023財年每股盈測降7%,以反映在新業務方面加大投資,重申「買入」評級,目標價由300元降至290元以反映盈利預測下調,認為其主要風險為政策轉變。

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