《大行报告》大和下调阿里(09988.HK)目标价至290元 评级「买入」
大和发表的研究报告指,阿里(09988.HK)第四财季整体收入较市场预期高4%,不过按非通用会计准则计算,核心电商EBITA则较预期低14%,公司对2022财年的收入指引亦未有任何上行惊喜,管理层指将聚焦於积极扩张社区服务、新零售、淘宝特价版等的扩张,估计将进一步拖累其核心电商业务的整体盈利能力,相信短期将为投资带来忧虑,但认为相关举措对进一步强化其价值是有需要。此外,阿里现时估值吸引,重申「买入」评级,为该行在大型互联网企业中首选。
该行认为公司收入胜预期,主要因为非客户管理及佣金收入高於预期,其中包括物流及国际电商等,而客户管理及佣金收入表现则符该行预期,管理层估计2022财年收入将达9,300亿元人民币,较市场预期仅高1%。而自今季起公司将继续披露撇除淘宝特价版後的核心电商EBITA利润率,相信相关业务自2021财年首财季起已是利润的主要拖累因素。管理层指出2022财年公司会继续投资在新业务,包括淘宝特价版、社区团购、本地服务、Lazada等,同时该行估计上半财年EBITA将持平,以反映投资带来的影响,加上阿里已在第四财季入帐反垄断相关罚款,对其非通用会计准则EBITA无大影响。
虽然公司第四财季云业务按非通用会计准则计算EBITA利润率进一步改善至1.8%,不过收入增长仅37%较该行预期低7%,主要因为期内公司流失了在海外的主要客户,展望将来阿里云将继续推动客户多元化,及推动包括医疗健康在内的快速增长行业。该行将公司2022至2023财年每股盈测降7%,以反映在新业务方面加大投资,重申「买入」评级,目标价由300元降至290元以反映盈利预测下调,认为其主要风险为政策转变。
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