惠誉：蚂蚁集团事件表明中国政府对互联网贷款风险的高度关注
惠誉评级认为，中国监管机构要求蚂蚁集团将旗下小额贷款业务与其支付平台支付宝断开连接，此举表明了中国政府对缓解网络小额贷款(网络小贷)行业对金融系统和社会稳定性所造成风险的重视，同时亦表明政府着力矫正第三方支付市场上的反竞争行为。
该行指出近年来网络小贷行业迅速扩张，其带来的隐患已引起监管机构的密切关注，惠誉预计这将导致该行业的增速放缓。从对信用状况的角度来看，网络小贷行业若能保持更加可持续的增速，应当有利於行业的长期发展及资产质量的提升。由於中国经济持续增长及个人消费不断提高将持续拉动网络小贷需求，惠誉预期，未来几年内网络小贷业务的增速仍将高於银行贷款。然而惠誉认为，政府最近采取的行动凸显出，短期内网络小贷公司仍将持续面临较高的监管风险。
惠誉预期，支付服务与小额贷款业务断开连接後，蚂蚁集团通过旗下支付宝平台进行交叉销售的竞争优势将被削弱，消费者在支付平台或网络小贷公司方面将享有更多选择，加上近期其他的监管举措，蚂蚁集团在短期内的营收和利润增速或将受到影响。
不过该行认为蚂蚁集团已在网络小贷领域建立了品牌地位及用户基础，并积累了庞大的数据库来支持其运用大数据和人工智能技术的授信系统。惠誉预计，蚂蚁集团仍将是网络小贷行业重要的服务提供者，并将获益於网络小贷规模的持续扩大。蚂蚁集团亦已成立一家其持股50%的消费金融公司，并於2020年9月获得中国银行保险监督管理委员会颁发的牌照。通过该消费金融公司，蚂蚁集团能够在全国范围内开展小额消费贷款业务，且杠杆率最高可至10倍，相比之下由地方政府发放的小贷业务牌照则受到较多限制。
蚂蚁集团增长前景因受监管影响而有所放缓，或为其他符合监管新规的网络小贷公司创造机会，但是监管机构将对网络小贷行业可能在其他方面引发的风险保持警惕，尤其是与个人及小微企业客户有关、并可能滋生社会稳定问题的风险将受到特别关注。监管风险攀升或令网络小贷公司降低其风险偏好，这应有利於金融系统稳定。监管环境将持续快速演变，监管机构在鼓励金融创新发挥积极作用的同时，亦会注重防范与互联网消费信贷增长相伴而生的风险。
惠誉预期，对蚂蚁集团造成影响的监管措施对阿里巴巴(09988.HK)现金生成能力的直接影响较为有限。蚂蚁集团是阿里巴巴持股33%的关联公司，但从未向包括阿里巴巴在内的股东派发过股息。阿里巴巴在中国网购市场和云计算服务领域的领先地位、其核心商业业务产生较大的自由现金流、充裕的净现金头寸及保守的资本结构仍将支持其整体信用状况。(el/u) ~
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
