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植耀辉: 平安(02318.HK)参股方正重组 医疗产业发展未来有憧憬
阿思达克 05-05 10:32
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,曾几何时,投资内险股,十居其九也会选择中国平安(02318.HK),皆因业务发展理想,新业务价值增速跑赢同业,而且更有Fintech概念,笔者亦曾有一段时间相当看好它。不过随着内地保险行业竞争加剧及政策因素,笔者亦对整个行业前景有保留,加上股价一直未见突破之余,华夏幸福(600340.SH)之债务危机亦令大家对其看法变得审慎,故已有一段时间没有再作推介。不过上周五(4月30日)平保再有大动作,宣布拟斥逾500亿元人民币参与北大方正重组,亦可跟大家分享一下看法。

由於北大方正业务众多,故只集中谈谈与平保有较密切关系之金融及医疗相关产业。先交代一些方正旗下方正证券之资料:去年方正证券营收在内地所有上市券商中排名18,净利润则位列29;若以增速表现比较,则两者分别为14.36%及8.82%,低於行业平均水平(24.41%及27.98%),意味表现其实不算「标青」。至於平安证券净利润增长则达30.6%,明显胜方正证券一筹。事实上,即使两者整合,但预期在内地券商排名亦只会升至第十位,但较大问题还是在於两者企业文化不同,整合过程可能须花相当长时间之余,亦未必能达致「1+1=2」之效果。

反而医疗资产可能才是今次平保出手之最大诱因。平安集团於医疗领域本身已涵盖多个范畴,包括线上问诊之平安好医生(01833.HK),又或包括医药资料库,知识图谱等业务在内之平安智慧医疗,以及提供健康险或养老险之平安人寿。不过当中却缺乏实体医院,而这正是北大医疗最大之卖点。北大医疗之核心资产包括多家知名实体医院,例如北京大学国际医院便拥有1,800个床位及60多个学科室,北大医疗康复医院(康复专科)及北大医疗健康管理中心则主要提供体检等服务,至於迦南门诊则提供防癌筛查等。所以两者结合的话,将令平安集团於医疗领域上达致真正一体化。

在消息曝光後,平保股价未见支持,反而续试低位。某程度上反映投资者对今次参股行动普遍持观望看法,当然行业本身亦具挑战,而要扭转外界对平保之看法似乎亦非短期的事。何况参与方正重组所带来的不确定性相当高,所以投资者亦不需要急於博捞底矣。

(笔者为证监会持牌人,并未持有相关股份)

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美股震荡 市场忧虑提早加息

耀才研究部称,隔晚(4日)三大指数下跌,收市个别发展。美国财长耶伦指政府大举增加开支振兴经济,带来通胀上升压力,利率於某段日子後可能需要温和上调,虽然没有提到加息时间框架,但亦引发市场震荡。道指曾挫347点,不过低位反弹,最後倒升19点。

科技股跌幅较大,纳指曾挫3%,苹果(AAPL.US)最多跌4%,亚马逊(AMZN.US)滑落2.2%。不过联储局官员仍保持较中性的看法,鲍威尔提出美国就业市场仍然不平衡,加上耶伦其後澄清她并没有预测或建议加息,也不预期通胀会成为一个问题,大市跌幅得以收窄。另一方面,欧盟官员指中欧关系近日恶化,已暂停批准中欧全面投资协定,将继续拖累市场气氛。

恒指昨日未能重返100天线之水平,但整体而言,本周大市日均成交均不足一千亿,指标性不太大,恒指仅横行於保力加通道之内,此通道暂在28,429点至29,268点之间,恒指能否於短期内维持於此通道之间将成关键。维持较早前看法,如恒指不能於短期後市重上100天线,当100天线正式失守,则宜慎防後市将会继续调整。反之,如指数再度重上100天线,反覆待变之格局或将会维持。

(笔者为证监会持牌人)~

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