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《大行报告》瑞银:北水4月重临港股支撑高估值 偏好疫後正常化受惠股
阿思达克 05-04 15:56
瑞银发表研究报告,指4月本港非银行金融股反弹,友邦保险(01299.HK)及港交所(00388.HK)共贡献MSCI香港指数月度回报56%,带动4月指数升3%。在收益率曲线趋平下,价值股相对表现持平。按板块看,非本地周期性股份如ASM太平洋(00522.HK)、创科(00669.HK)及信义玻璃(00868.HK)4月表现突出,而本地周期性股份(如银行股)及濠赌股则跑输大市。

报告称,内地投资者4月重临港股市场,4月录56亿美元净流入。因此,北水对MSCI香港指数股份持有权益由3月的1.5%微升至4月的1.6%,支持其高昂估值。现时MSCI香港指数估值相当於未来12个月预测市盈率17.9倍,较历史均值高出1.6个标准差,撇除非银行金融股,估值仍相当於於未来12个月预测市盈率15倍,较2010年11月起均值高出1.2个标准差。经股息调整後,MSCI香港指数仍显得昂贵,MSCI香港指数盈利收益率与美国十年期债息的息差达3.9%,较十年均值4.7%低出一个标准差。

由於濠赌股本年至今复苏步伐缓慢,市场对今年每股盈测轻微下调约2%。惟市场仍预期今年全年纯利及毛利率改善(每股盈利料升34%),明年每股盈利料续升12%。

瑞银表示,偏好疫後正常化受惠股及落後股,以抵御潜在估值向下重评。报告称,MSCI香港指数估值相当於明年预测市盈率15.9倍,较十年均值高出1.1个标准差。撇除非银行金融股,估值则相当於於明年预测市盈率12.8倍,低於历史均值。该行认为,估值相对较低、基本面或受潜在复关及需求复苏所提振的落後股蕴藏投资机遇。该行首选及最不偏好股份见另表。

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