《大行报告》交银国际料美团(03690.HK)面临40亿至120亿人币罚款 潜在行政处分影响不大
就国家市场监督管理总局上日(26日)公布对美团(03690.HK)实施「二选一」等涉嫌垄断行为立案调查一事,交银国际发表报告,指参考阿里(09988.HK)案例,认为对美团的判定依据可能有几点,即美团外卖市场份额;美团外卖对服务价格及商家流量是否有控制能力;资金及技术能力;商户对平台依赖程度及是否依赖平台数据导致高昂的迁移成本;新进入者的门槛;以及,是否有「二选一」等行为证据。
报告料潜在行政处罚对美团业务运营影响不大,短期或影响股价;未来行业竞争仍体现在对用户需求的满足,对商户营业额的带动,及通过平台规模效应及技术能力优化配送成本。参考阿里案例(对应2019年境内GMV规模的4%,约182.28亿元人民币),股价去年11月至今跌幅25%,其中宣布立案审查
之日股价跌幅13%。假设美团可能面临的行政处罚,对业务影响不大,罚款区间料介乎40亿至120亿元人民币,相当於2018/19年外卖业务GMV的1%至3%,占新一轮融资後净现金比例3%至9%,对2021年亏损率影响2%至7%。
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