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《大行报告》瑞信:香港新加坡重启「航空旅游气泡」向积极方向迈步 料国泰短期复苏仍艰难
阿思达克 04-26 15:58
瑞信发表报告表示,就香港特区政府今日(26日)公布重启与新加坡的「航空旅游气泡」计划,在首航之前将密切监测两地的新冠疫情发展,由於最近疫情再趋稳定,两地政府均积极就此重新启谈判,该行指对重启计划并不令人感到意外,即使在最初阶段的指定航班数量有限,该行认为显示向积极方迈步。

该行指香港与新加坡的「航空旅游气泡」计划采取更严格措施,第一是「疫苗气泡」,按毋须隔离措施前往新加坡的香港居民,必须接种两剂新冠疫苗後至少14天,於出发前的旅客在出发前14天需无前往新加坡或香港以外任何地方的旅行等。至於指定航班,监於原来安排保持不变,国泰航空(00293.HK)和新加坡航空最初将在首两周每天运营一次航班(最多200个座位),若新冠疫情进一步受控,将在6月10日以後将逐步增加航班,而目前国泰每周运营两班往返香港和新加坡的航班。

瑞信认为国泰短期复苏艰难,因全球新冠疫情大流行情况仍然不稳定,香港最近在社区中出现涉变种病毒株的个案,该行估计若疫情一旦恶化,将可能令上述计划中断及停止。该行对近期客流量将保持较低水平:载客量一直相当於2019年水平的1%至2%左右,飞行容量约仅为2019年水平的5%至6%。在香港与新加坡之间的「航空旅游气泡」计划可能逐渐提振国泰载客表现。该行维持对国泰「中性」评级及目标价7.2元。

该行估计恢复路径仍然不确定,并且很大程度上取决於疫苗接种的情况,截至4月26日,香港已有83.4万人接种了第一剂疫苗,43.3万人接种了第二剂疫苗,覆盖范围大致分别占人口的11%和6%(对群体免疫力为疫苗接种率70%)。

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