惠誉:资产管理公司积极退出不合规通道业务致影子银行规模跌幅超预期
评级机构惠誉发表报告指,监管改革有助於非银金融机构发展,该行指中国的「窄口径影子银行」规模於去年再次下滑10%,对比GDP跌至接近2014年的水平。影子银行规模跌幅超出惠誉先前预期,主要因为资产管理公司积极退出不合规的通道业务。
报告指,面对新冠肺炎疫情的经济影响,政府本可能会放松对影子银行的监管,但中国监管机构继续收紧监管措施,以遏制不规范的融资活动。监於市场对信用状况较弱实体的风险厌恶情绪加剧,且认列资产减值的意愿增强,惠誉预期影子银行系统的资产质量将进一步恶化。信托业投资者损失赔偿准备金增长,致投资者损失赔偿准备金与所有者权益比率自2019年第四季度末的4.6%升至2020年第四季度末的4.8%,且披露的资管产品违约案例增加,显示影子银行系统内资产质量持续承压。
在中国信托业协会停止披露高风险项目金额前,信托公司的高风险项目、即欠款或违约项目在2020年第一季度末达到峰值,对信托公司总管理资产的占比达到3%。监管措施有望促进公开透明的优质非银信贷中介活动发展。监管机构打压不规范融资活动的举措令中国的影子银行资产自2017年以来缩减约30%。监管更严、更透明且具备适当风险准备金的非银融资活动,将有助於在传统银行系统之外建立更稳健的替代性融资渠道,以支持未来经济增长和金融业发展。
该行预期,资质较弱的借款人获取新融资或为即将到期债务再融资的难度较大,主要因为投资者面对资产减值风险和屡屡发生的信用违约事件,仍旧维持风险厌恶。资产管理公司将继续退出不合规产品,以在2021年底资管新规规定的过渡期截止日期前达标,而2021年以後非银信贷中介活动有望以更有序、更透明的方式成长。在更严格的监管框架下,该行业将实现更有节制的增长,并认真监控风险,以计提合理的风险准备金,维护金融系统稳定。
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