《大行报告》高盛料内地医药研发外包行业盈利展望稳固 首选药明系两企
高盛发表研究报告,指内地CDMO/CRO(药物开发和生产合同定制/合同研究组织)企业去年在两大压测中保持韧性,即疫情带来的供应干扰,及中美紧张下外包价值链分离风险。内地CDMO/CRO去年首季及去年上半年表现较弱,而受惠於新客户增长加快、交叉销售及外包增加、内地客户增长加快,去年第二至第四季复苏进展令人鼓舞。
报告称,行业龙头并购或需要调节,例如将眼光由美国移向欧盟等,内生增长的核心动力持续。该行称,疫情带来的一次性作用似在减褪,不过一些好处及坏处或持续更久,如新冠疫苗/疗法的CDMO/CMO收入对药明生物(02269.HK)仍属机遇,而临床CRO或需更长时间复苏。
高盛指内地康健护理行业今明两年盈利强劲增长清晰,重申对CDMO/CRO企业的偏好,特别是在近期市况波动时,主因全球生物药企研发开支稳定增长,及由强劲生科风投/IPO资金推动。踏入今年,生科风投及IPO融资同创新高。另研发外包需求持续,外包服务定价稳定增加亦有利CDMO/CRO企业,料在强劲资金投入下,行业今明两年盈利展望稳固。
报告以药明康德(02359.HK)及药明生物为首选,受惠市场定位、领先技术及强劲盈利往绩。该行同予康龙化成(03759.HK)、泰格医药(03347.HK)及方达控股(01521.HK)「买入」评级,因为看好整个板块;但料临床CRO复苏或呈渐进,方达控股对新产能的投入或压抑今明两年利润率。详细评级及目标价见另表。
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